Private

FS 3.159

Managing mountain ecosystems in a changing climate: integrating long-term data

Details

  • Full Title

    FS 3.159: Understanding and managing mountain ecosystems in a changing climate: integrating long-term data for action
  • Scheduled

    TBA
  • Location

    TBA
  • Assigned to Synthesis Workshop

    ---
  • Thematic Focus

    Conservation, Ecosystems, Paleoperspective, Policy, Sustainable Development
  • Keywords

    Ecosystem dynamics, Land use change, Long-term data, Paleoecology, Stakeholder engagement

Description

Mountain ecosystems are highly vulnerable to climate change, with shifts in biodiversity, ecosystem services, and land use affecting sustainability at local, regional, and global scales. Understanding these changes requires long-term environmental data spanning decades to millennia to analyze trends, patterns, and interactions between ecosystems, climate, and human activities. This session will explore how integrating ecological, climatic, and land-use data with stakeholder knowledge can support the sustainable management of mountain ecosystems. This session aligns with the DiverseK working group under the PAGES initiative. Key questions for the session include: How can long-term ecological data enhance our understanding of mountain ecosystems? What are the long-term effects of climate change and land-use changes on biodiversity and ecosystem services? How can scientists, policymakers, and stakeholders collaborate for sustainable mountain ecosystem management? The session will address:

  • Current trends in mountain ecosystems including climate impacts on vegetation and forest management
  • Long-term perspectives of using paleoecology and historical land-use data
  • Evaluation of adaptive policy scenarios in collaboration with stakeholders

The target audience comprises ecologists, paleoecologists, ecosystem modelers, and a range of stakeholders including forest managers, conservation practitioners, policymakers, and businesses. Expected outcomes are strengthened collaborations between researchers and stakeholders, and identification of practical strategies for climate resilience and sustainable land management in mountain regions worldwide.

Submitted Abstracts

ID: 3.9308

Evaluating Community Structure and function in the Himalayan Moist Temperate Forest for Long-Term Ecological Monitoring Using a Permanent Plot

Abhishek Kumar Verma
Panwar, Vijender Pal; Bala, Nirmalya; Chand, Tara; Verma, Praveen Kumar

Abstract/Description

Understanding the impacts of climate change on forests is crucial for assessing structural and functional shifts over time. To investigate these effects in Himalayan forests, a 10-hectare permanent plot was established in Benog Wildlife Sanctuary, Mussoorie, Uttarakhand, India. This plot, subdivided into 250 grids of 20×20 m, facilitates systematic and long-term monitoring of forest dynamics. A total of 13,966 woody individuals with a diameter at breast height (DBH) >1 cm were recorded, measured, tagged, and mapped with precise locations. Tracking individual species along with their key attributes enables a deeper understanding of their community dynamics over time. Analyzing species associations, dispersion patterns, diversity, and growth trends will provide insights into their adaptive strategies in response to environmental changes in the coming decades. This study represents the first of its kind in the Himalayas and is critical for evaluating long-term climate change impacts. The findings will support scientists and policymakers in developing sustainable forest management strategies that account for ongoing climate variability.

ID: 3.9951

A 500-year climate-vegetation cycle recorded in mountainous northeast Asia over the past 20,000 years

Deke Xu

Abstract/Description

Climate variability exerts a fundamental influence on vegetation dynamics and human social development. Recent studies have identified a stable ~500-year climate-vegetation cycle in the East Asian Monsoon (EAM) region over the past 20,000 years. This cyclic variation not only shaped vegetation patterns during the Last Deglaciation, but also profoundly influenced prehistoric human activities and cultural evolution throughout the Holocene. During the Last Deglaciation, high-resolution palynological records and time-series analyses from Xiaolongwan Maar Lake, Jilin Province, reveal a seesaw-like alternation between temperate deciduous forests and boreal coniferous forests with steppe, corresponding to shifts between warm-wet and cold-dry phases of the EAM. This 500-year periodicity is closely linked to the frequency of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, highlighting the role of low-latitude ocean-atmosphere processes in modulating high-latitude monsoon dynamics. During the Holocene, this 500-year cyclicity continued to dominate EAM intensity and had a significant impact on prehistoric human activities in northeastern China. High-resolution pollen records and radiocarbon probability density analysis of archaeological sites indicate a strong correlation between warm-humid climatic phases and periods of cultural prosperity. For example, the emergence of the Xinglongwa culture (~7570 cal yr BP) and the Zhaobaogou culture (~6770 cal yr BP) coincided with periods of increased monsoonal precipitation, suggesting that warm and humid conditions facilitated the development of prehistoric societies. This periodicity is likely to be driven by ENSO variability induced by solar activity. Overall, the 500-year climate cycle, superimposed on orbital-scale climatic background changes, played a critical role in shaping prehistoric cultural evolution in Northeast Asia. Favourable warm and humid conditions enhanced plant and animal productivity, thereby fostering the development and prosperity of early human societies and civilisations in the region. This study systematically reveals for the first time a stable 500-year climate-vegetation-human activity cycle since the last deglaciation, providing crucial insights into centennial to millennial-scale climate variability and its impacts on ecosystems and human societies.

ID: 3.10419

Long-term ecological insights for managing mountain landscapes in a changing world

Laurent Marquer
Seim, Andrea; Kulkarni, Charuta; Razanatsoa, Estelle; Słowinski, Michal; Cui, Qiaoyu

Abstract/Description

Mountain ecosystems provide essential services such as water regulation, biodiversity conservation, and land use for agriculture, forestry, and tourism. However, climate change and land-use transformations threaten these ecosystems, altering vegetation dynamics, disrupting ecological processes, and impacting livelihoods. Addressing these challenges requires a long-term perspective that integrates ecological, climatic, and land-use data to assess past, present, and future trends.
Paleoecological and historical records reveal how mountain ecosystems have responded to environmental changes over decades to millennia. Combining these records with modern data and modeling enhances our understanding of ecosystem resilience, species shifts, and sustainable land management. Key research areas include long-term biodiversity monitoring, fire and forest dynamics, and the influence of climate variability on treeline shifts and vegetation patterns.
Integrating scientific data with stakeholder knowledge is crucial for adaptive management strategies that balance conservation and socio-economic needs. Collaborative approaches involving scientists, land managers, policymakers, and local communities can enhance climate adaptation and mitigation efforts through sustainable land-use planning, biodiversity conservation, and evidence-based policies.
The PAGES DiverseK working group applies these principles by integrating long-term ecological data to inform sustainable management strategies. A recent DiverseK workshop brought together scientists and stakeholders for interdisciplinary discussions on climate and land-use impacts, biodiversity conservation, and adaptive management. This presentation will introduce key insights from the session, highlighting how historical and modern ecological perspectives can strengthen mountain ecosystem resilience and guide sustainable decision-making.

ID: 3.11471

First results of the research project “Impact of past and current trenchant climatic and environmental changes on Armenian Highland lake ecosystems“

Grigorii Fedorov
Fedorov, Grigorii; Fedorova, Irina; Gabrielyan, Ivan; Hayrapetyan, Narine; Sadokov, Dmitrii; Khumaryan, Lian

Abstract/Description

We present here the first results of the research project started in summer 2023 and aimed to evaluation of lakes responses to past and current climate changes. The overall goal of the project is to evaluate the impact of recent climate change and other anthropogenic stressors on Armenian alpine lake ecosystems with a special focus on the largest Caucasus Lake Sevan by using data from present and past conditions to assess changes in ecosystem functions. Several smaller alpine lakes are selected that are in different environmental conditions to be able to characterize the response of different mountain lake ecosystems to external forcing. The project involves lake sediments coring followed by dating, paleobotanical and geochemical analyses as well as hydrological, hydrochemical and hydrobiological studies of all target lakes. Relatively deep sediment coring (up to 20 m of sediment depth) of Lake Sevan by using percussion piston coring system is planned for summer 2025. The work is supported by the Ministry of Education, Science, Culture and Sports of Armenia, Higher Education and Science Committee in the frame of research project IMPACT (23IRF-1E02).

ID: 3.11569

Winners and losers in a warming climate: insights from seed longevity

Silvano Lodetti
Tognela, Margherita; Porro, Francesco; Rossi, Graziano; Mondoni, Andrea

Abstract/Description

Given the rapid pace of climate change, understanding the resilience and adaptability of alpine flora is crucial for biodiversity conservation. In this context, functional traits have emerged as a powerful tool to assess plant vulnerability to climate shifts. While several vegetative and regenerative traits have been used to study alpine plant responses to changing climates, the role of seed longevity remains largely unexplored. This gap is particularly significant given the established relationship between seed longevity and climate. We hypothesize that seed longevity plays a key role in shaping species response to climate change, with species that are increasing in abundance producing longer-lived seeds than those in decline. To test our hypothesis, we first analyzed the 21-yr population dynamics for 25 alpine species occurring in the Northern Apennines Target Region of the GLORIA project, using the non-parametric Cliff’s Delta effect size index. This target region has experienced an increase in annual mean soil temperature (+0.46°C per decade from 2001 to 2022), mirroring the rise in annual mean air temperature (+0.38 °C per decade from 1963 to 2024). We then used the time required for seed viability to decline to 50% (p50) as a proxy for seed longevity, estimated through accelerated aging experiments. The correlation between p50 and population trends supported our hypothesis, with a significant positive relationship between species abundance change and seed longevity (Cliff Index ~ log(p50): Est.=0.14, p-value<0,05). These findings provide new insights into the mechanisms driving alpine vegetation shifts under climate warming, improving predictions of future species composition in montane ecosystems. Recognizing the role of seed longevity in species persistence can strengthen conservation strategies, refine vulnerability assessments, and inform restoration efforts in climate-sensitive habitats. This study is part of the SENTINEL project (The reSponsEs of italian mouNTaIN Ecosystems to cLimate change), started in 2023 and funded by the Italian Ministry of University and Scientific Research (MUR). This project aims to provide critical insights for the present and future management of highly vulnerable mountain regions.

ID: 3.12398

Application of Climate-Smart Forestry in long-term experimental plots to analyze the management effects for forest resilience and climate adaptation

Diana Alfieri
Caicoya, Astor Toraño; Santopuoli, Giovanni; Tognetti, Roberto

Abstract/Description

In recent years, Climate-Smart Forestry (CSF) has emerged as an innovative approach for sustainable forest management, aiming to enhance forest resilience, mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, and balance the provision of ecosystem services in the face of climate change threats. This study employs a composite Climate-Smart Index (ICSF) to assess CSF in long-term experimental plots in Bavaria, characterized by Norway spruce and European beech with different silvicultural treatments (e.g., low thinning, strong thinning, no thinning) and species mixing. Using historical data, the ICSF index allows us to compare these management options in terms of mitigation and adaptation over time. The study aims to answer the following questions: (i) which forest types have higher levels of smartness) (ii) how do different management options affect the ICSF over time? (iii) which indicators have the greatest influence on ICSF trends? The approach includes the (i) selection, (ii) normalization, (iii) weighting, and (iv) aggregation of CSF indicators. Eight indicators were selected and assessed for each plot (i.e., carbon stock, growing stock, diameter distribution, tree species composition, slenderness coefficient, forest damage, increment and felling, and regeneration). The Analytic Hierarchy Process was employed to weigh the indicators according to the preferences of CSF-expert stakeholders at both indicators and criteria levels. Results indicate that mixed forests show higher smartness than monospecific forests, particularly due to greater adaptation capacity. Among management treatments, low thinning enhances smartness in beech forests, however differences in thinning intensity within the same species do not significantly impact the index. This suggests that tree species composition plays a more decisive role in determining forest smartness than silvicultural practices. Additionally, carbon stock, growing stock, and roundwood production emerge as the most influential indicators shaping smartness trends over time. This study will provide valuable insights for forest managers and policymakers, helping them to implement more effective strategies for the sustainable management of forests in the context of climate change.

ID: 3.12727

Evidence-based Agroforestry and Tree Resilience for Climate Change Adaptation in Mountain Ecosystems: Addressing Vulnerability, Biodiversity Loss, and Ecosystem Service Sustainability

Aster Gebrekirstos

Abstract/Description

Climate change has emerged as one of the most significant threats to both nature and humanity. Today, we are witnessing a humanitarian crisis in many mountain ecosystems, driven by extreme weather events such as landslides, droughts, and increasingly frequent and intense dry spells. Agroforestry and forests offer nature-based solutions for climate change adaptation and mitigation, while also supporting biodiversity and securing critical ecosystem services. Agroforestry and the restoration of degraded forest landscapes are gaining momentum as essential strategies for restoring the health and functionality of mountain ecosystems. However, it is becoming clear that the growth patterns, water-use efficiency, and survivability of tree species are highly sensitive to climate variations, with stress-induced mortality altering the structure of forest landscapes. Assessing vegetation vulnerability, climate resilience, and human adaptation strategies requires a deep understanding of tree species diversity, genetic and phenotypic growth strategies, and their temporal and spatial responses to fluctuating water availability. Unfortunately, science-based knowledge on tree species selection and management, particularly for native tropical species, is limited. There is also a critical gap in understanding how tree species grow in response to climate variability and how they might adapt to future climatic changes. Thus, there is a pressing need to generate regional and global data across broad climate gradients and multiple temporal scales (inter-annual and intra-annual variations) using a combination of multi-parameter measurements and socio ecological knowledge. We will present the multiple roles of agroforestry in contributing to the conservation of biodiversity and local livelihoods in mountain ecosystems from our studies in Eastern Africa. We will present methods and tools, including tree-ring and stable isotope analyses, to examine the history and frequency of extreme drought events, characterize drought tolerance, and assess water-use efficiency in trees and forests and the need to establish living labs as key biodiversity and climate observatories to inform evidence-based, nature-based solutions and policy decisions aimed at increasing the resilience of local livelihoods and ecosystems in mountain regions and beyond.

ID: 3.12735

A vegetation survey on woody species encroachment of abandoned pastures in the Alps

Daria Ferraris
Galvagno, Marta; Oddi, Ludovica; Filippa, Gianluca; Cremonese, Edoardo; Pogliotti, Paolo; Grosso, Federico; Morra di Cella, Umberto; Koliopoulos, Sofia; Guarneri, Chiara; Wohlfahrt, Georg; Leitinger, Georg; Migliavacca, Mirco; Hammerle, Albin; Papale, Dario

Abstract/Description

The research focuses on investigating how climatic and socio-economic shifts drive woody species encroachment into mountain grasslands, altering carbon sequestration patterns and contributing to ecosystem changes.
In recent decades, the Aosta Valley region has experienced a transition towards the abandonment of traditional livestock grazing activities below the forest line (~1500 meters asl). In this context, our study aims to improve knowledge about this process and the consequences of woody species encroachment in the Alps. The regeneration of shrub and tree vegetation in this mountainous landscape is closely linked to climate change and its extremes, making it challenging to disentangle their effects from those of land use change. This process offers valuable insights into how ecosystems evolve as they gradually return to a state less influenced by human activity. The activities were carried out at the ICOS-associated site Torgnon (IT-Tor), an abandoned subalpine pasture dominated by Nardus stricta, located in the Aosta Valley region at approximately 2100 m asl. Within this pasture, an area of 15,000 square meters undergoing recolonization by larches (Larix decidua) and shrubs was selected. Since 2015, periodic surveys (2015, 2018, 2021, and 2024) have been conducted to monitor vegetation dynamics. Using a GNSS system, we mapped larch tree locations, measured trunk diameters, heights, and crown dimensions, and documented associated shrub growth. Additionally, UAV aerial images have been collected annually to track landscape changes. Moreover, continuous measurements of CO2 and water fluxes, along with meteorological variables, have been available at the site since 2008. To further evaluate ecosystem fluxes, an additional eddy covariance station was installed in October 2024 in the encroached area, and preliminary flux measurements will be presented. Overall, results highlight a progressive shift from grassland to woody vegetation, influencing carbon and water dynamics. This research underscores the critical role of land cover and land use (LCLU) changes in shaping present and future global vegetation dynamics and carbon sinks, emphasizing the need to integrate these dynamics into ecosystem carbon cycle modeling.

ID: 3.12958

Climate impact from two decades of forest change in the Himalayas.

Akash Verma
Lamba, Aakash; Webb, Edward; Schmidt-Vogt, Dietrich

Abstract/Description

The Himalayan mountain range spans diverse ecosystems across multiple countries, making it crucial to regional climate change mitigation efforts. In this study, we aim to estimate the role of forest cover change and its associated climate impact in the region. We used a high-resolution regional land cover dataset to estimate forest change between 2000 and 2021. We integrated this data with a global ecoregion classification and aboveground biomass estimates from NASA’s GEDI L4A data product to accurately quantify carbon sequestration, emissions, and net flux over the two-decade period. Our analysis reveals that Himalayan forests sequestered 325.5 million metric tons of CO₂ equivalent (MtCO₂eq) while emitting 195.8 MtCO₂, resulting in a net sequestration of 129.9 MtCO₂eq. Among the subregions, the Indian Himalayas had the highest total carbon sequestration, but Nepal exhibited the greatest climate impact per unit of forest area. Despite having only half the total forest cover of the Indian Himalayas, Nepal’s forests achieved net sequestration of 73.4 MtCO₂eq, nearly 1.5 times that of the Indian Himalayas. This underscores the exceptional carbon storage potential of Nepal’s mid-hill forests, which, along with parts of the Indian Himalayas, emerged as the most effective carbon sink in the region. Additionally, we identified areas of persistent forest cover over the two decades and found that the Eastern Himalayas serve as the most significant long-term and high-density carbon sink. These findings establish the Himalayas as a vital carbon reservoir, emphasizing the need for ongoing conservation and afforestation. By mapping forest recovery, this study underscores the region’s role in climate mitigation and identifies key areas for future carbon sequestration.

ID: 3.13374

Status of Deforestation and Forest Degradation and Drivers thereof in Indo-Himalayan region

Trishla Shaktan
Rawat, Dr. Ranjeet Singh; Nautiyal, Dr. Raman

Abstract/Description

With the consequences of climate change (CC) becoming increasingly menacing, the need for effective approaches for its timely mitigation is crucial. The situation has worsened with increased carbon emissions due to continuous deforestation and forest degradation (D&FD). Forests are vulnerable to degradation as they provide several products like fuel-wood, fodder, etc. to the communities. Temperate forests in Indo-Himalayan region are particularly important to maintain the Himalayan eco-system that is crucial for climatic and water security of the plains of Northern India. The study aims to estimate baseline carbon stock of temperate forests of Indo-Himalayan region, status of D&FD using GIS and identifying the drivers of D&FD in the study area. Estimation of the overall carbon stock for the study area was found to be around 195.60 million tonnes. LULUCF and status of D&FD was studied using remote sensing and GIS. The study indicated a decrease in forest cover, water availability and snow cover and showed an increase in the agriculture and settlement areas reflecting degradation of the forest area. A detailed household survey and stakeholder workshop was executed to identify the drivers of D&FD and understanding the socio-economic status and dependency on forests. Analytical Hierarchical Programming was used to give weights to the drivers of D&FD. The main drivers identified were encroachment, developmental activities, illicit-felling, over-lopping and fuel-wood collection and forest fires. The solutions to combat D&FD are alternate and sustainable livelihood opportunities, unconventional energy sources and community involvement in combating forest fires.

ID: 3.13402

Analysis of the Machangara river sub-basin (Ecuador) under the landscape approach as an adaptive management strategy for water resources and climate change

Veronica Quitiguina

Abstract/Description

Mountain ecosystems provide critical ecosystem services, including water regulation, biodiversity conservation, and carbon storage. However, they are increasingly threatened by climate change and human activities, particularly in the Andes. The Machangara River sub-basin in southern Ecuador is vital for hydropower, human consumption, agriculture, and livestock but faces significant pressures from land-use changes, deforestation, and intensified anthropogenic activities. This study, part of the Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in the Andes project, analyzed the sub-basin’s landscape structure to inform adaptive management strategies that enhance resilience. The research employed a landscape approach integrating ecological, hydrological, and socio-economic dimensions. It examined three key aspects: vertical (elevation gradients and ecosystem distribution), horizontal (land-use patterns), and transversal (ecological-human interactions). Spatial analysis tools, including GIS and remote sensing, mapped land-use types, identified critical water recharge zones, and assessed connectivity. Findings highlighted the essential role of paramos and montane forests in water regulation, particularly in the sub-basin’s upper regions. However, lower and middle sections face growing pressure. Key conservation areas, water recharge zones, and connectivity corridors supporting species like the Andean bear (Tremarctos ornatus) and páramo wolf (Lycalopex culpaeus) were identified, along with areas requiring restoration and sustainable management. To address these challenges, the study proposed adaptive management strategies, including improved land-use planning to balance conservation and development, enhancing ecological connectivity, and promoting sustainable agricultural practices that mitigate water resource degradation. Additionally, integrating climate adaptation measures into hydropower management is crucial for maintaining water availability for energy, agriculture, and human consumption. The adaptive landscape approach provides a robust framework for managing mountain ecosystems amid climate change. By preserving ecosystem functionality and resilience, these strategies ensure the long-term sustainability of vital ecosystem services in the Machangara River sub-basin.