Abstract ID: 3.11569 | Accepted as Talk | Talk/Oral | TBA | TBA

Given the rapid pace of climate change, understanding the resilience and adaptability of alpine flora is crucial for biodiversity conservation. In this context, functional traits have emerged as a powerful tool to assess plant vulnerability to climate shifts. While several vegetative and regenerative traits have been used to study alpine plant responses to changing climates, the role of seed longevity remains largely unexplored. This gap is particularly significant given the established relationship between seed longevity and climate. We hypothesize that seed longevity plays a key role in shaping species response to climate change, with species that are increasing in abundance producing longer-lived seeds than those in decline. To test our hypothesis, we first analyzed the 21-yr population dynamics for 25 alpine species occurring in the Northern Apennines Target Region of the GLORIA project, using the non-parametric Cliff’s Delta effect size index. This target region has experienced an increase in annual mean soil temperature (+0.46°C per decade from 2001 to 2022), mirroring the rise in annual mean air temperature (+0.38 °C per decade from 1963 to 2024). We then used the time required for seed viability to decline to 50% (p50) as a proxy for seed longevity, estimated through accelerated aging experiments. The correlation between p50 and population trends supported our hypothesis, with a significant positive relationship between species abundance change and seed longevity (Cliff Index ~ log(p50): Est.=0.14, p-value<0,05). These findings provide new insights into the mechanisms driving alpine vegetation shifts under climate warming, improving predictions of future species composition in montane ecosystems. Recognizing the role of seed longevity in species persistence can strengthen conservation strategies, refine vulnerability assessments, and inform restoration efforts in climate-sensitive habitats. This study is part of the SENTINEL project (The reSponsEs of italian mouNTaIN Ecosystems to cLimate change), started in 2023 and funded by the Italian Ministry of University and Scientific Research (MUR). This project aims to provide critical insights for the present and future management of highly vulnerable mountain regions.