Private

FS 3.105

Mountain models

Details

  • Full Title

    FS 3.105: Modeling Transformations of Mountain Landscapes: Opportunities and Threats
  • Scheduled

    Talks:
    2025-09-16, 13:30 - 15:00 (LT), Theologie – MS
  • Co-Conveners

  • Assigned to Synthesis Workshop

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  • Thematic Focus

    Multi-scale Modeling, Socio-Ecology, Sustainable Development
  • Keywords

    Mountain modeling, Montology, Resilience, Consilience, Adaptation

Description

The multidimensional study of mountains allows geoecological elements and phenomena to be modelled. While mountains bring many opportunities with their parameters, they are also complicated under a range of threats during prospective scenarios of climate change. These characteristics require extra effort to understand local impacts without losing sight of global complexity of mountain socioecological systems and parameterizing their different models. More information is needed on how mountain landscapes are transforming under environmental changes, as observations in one mountain area can serve as a mirror forecasting or hindcasting change. Seeing the opportunities and threats for different cases will be key to developing modeled solutions for sustainable and regenerative development. In this context, we take a montological perspective on opportunities and threats, based on ecological, economic, sociological, ethnographic, and climatic models. This session emphasizes that geospatial knowledge should be attained from a montological perspective with a transdisciplinary strategy. Therefore, the session shows the multidimensional interaction of mountain environments. There is a need for studies that bring together different methodologies to investigate the changing structure and usage characteristics due to human activities, the problems caused by natural disasters, and the responses of ecosystems, the adaptation of mountain communities, and more. The synergy created by such a methodology can pave the way for new approaches in mountain research.

Registered Abstracts

ID: 3.7918

A scorecard for transformational adaptation

Jan Cools
Fabri, Charlotte; Bjornavold, Amalie; Van Passel, Steven

Abstract/Description

In the Horizon 2020 project TransformAr, we developed a scorecard for transformational adaptation. The scorecard is intended as a tool to self-assess the potential of a project to achieve transformational adaptation. The socrecard is developed in parallel with the EU Policy Brief on Transformational Adaptation. We will explain the scorecard and the policy brief, and thereby present what is transformational adaptation, how it can be characterised and what are examples of transformational adaptation. The policy brief has been developed under the MIP4ADAPT platform, the secretariat of the EU Adaptation Mission. The participants will also understand the practical use of the scorecard for transformational adaptation

ID: 3.8232

Climate Change Impacts on Mountain Bioclimatic Zones Using High-Resolution Environmental Stratification

Robert Zomer
Trabucco, Antonio

Abstract/Description

Mountain ecosystems are among the most vulnerable to climate change, with rising temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns driving profound transformations in biodiversity, hydrology, and ecosystem services. High-resolution environmental stratification (EnS) provides a powerful approach to modeling these changes by delineating bioclimatic strata that reflect current and future climate conditions. This study applies a statistically derived global framework, based on downscaled CMIP6 Earth System Model projections, to assess the magnitude and spatial distribution of bioclimatic shifts in mountainous regions worldwide. Projected climate changes indicate that mountain bioclimatic zones will experience significant shifts in elevation and latitudinal extent by mid-century (2041–2060). Cold and mesic zones, which currently dominate many high-altitude regions, are projected to contract substantially under high-emission scenarios. Conversely, temperate and xeric zones are expected to expand into higher elevations, leading to increased aridification and altered hydrological cycles in regions such as the Himalayas, Andes, Alps, and Rocky Mountains. These changes threaten endemic alpine biodiversity, accelerate glacial melt, and disrupt water availability for downstream communities reliant on mountain-fed river systems. The EnS approach enables a fine-scale assessment of ecosystem responses to change, providing insights into potential range contractions of cold and other niche-adapted species and the upward migration of vegetation zones. Additionally, environmental stratification allows for the evaluation of climate impacts on ecosystem services, such as carbon sequestration and water regulation, which are crucial for sustaining both mountain ecosystems and human populations. Our findings underscore the urgency of adaptive conservation strategies to mitigate biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation in mountain regions. By leveraging high-resolution environmental stratification, this research offers a robust framework for policymakers and conservationists to anticipate and respond to climate-driven transformations in mountainous landscapes. The results provide critical guidance for regional adaptation planning, helping to safeguard biodiversity, water resources, and ecosystem stability in some of the world’s most climate-sensitive environments.

ID: 3.10473

Future scenarios against drivers of change: a comparative study of the mountain communities of Catac (Ancash) and Phinaya (Cusco) in the peruvian Andes

Nayda GarcÍa Mallma
Mendoza Ato, Angela; Fuentealba Durand, Beatriz

Abstract/Description

Changes in climate patterns and the retreat of tropical glaciers are generating profound transformations in mountain communities in the Peruvian Andes, who depend largely on natural resources for their subsistence. Understanding these dynamics and anticipating how high Andean territories may evolve is essential for local planning and adaptation. This research aims to compare three future scenarios for the year 2050 in the socio-ecological systems of the mountain communities of Cátac (North) and Phinaya (South), against environmental, social, economic and political drivers of change. An integrated approach was employed, combining secondary sources review, participant observation, interviews with local users, a scenario-building workshop with key stakeholders, and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) tools. Our results reveal converging projections in terms of climate vulnerability but diverging impacts of climate change due to variations in geography, economy, and local adaptation strategies. The socio-ecological scenarios, built from the knowledge and perception of local stakeholders together with GIS analysis, provide key information on the dynamics of change and possible futures in high Andean communities for informed decision-making.

ID: 3.11721

Water flows in a montane rice landscape: hydrologic modeling and upland-lowland interactions

Randall Ritzema

Abstract/Description

Populations in upland catchments of northern Lao PDR are dependent on two distinct rice agroecosystems for food security: upland rice, i.e. traditional rainfed rice cultivation on steep slopes within a shifting cultivation system; and paddy rice, which is grown in valley bottoms and irrigated from available stream water. Intensive levels of shifting cultivation in recent decades have led to degradation of hillslopes and unsustainable upland rice production, threatening local rice sufficiency. Water flows link the two agroecosystems, but complex hydrologic effects from land use changes on slopes via alteration of the shifting cultivation system, and resulting water availability for irrigation in the valley bottoms, complicate intervention strategy formulation. This study presents results from a hydrologic modeling analysis of a 3.5 km2 study catchment in northern Lao PDR. The analysis deployed a physically-based, spatially-distributed hydrologic model of the land phase of the hydrologic cycle, including evapotranspiration, detailed surface water processes and simplified sub-surface flow representations. The model was used to assess changes to irrigation water availability for paddy rice from several land use change options that lessen shifting cultivation intensity and enhance forest cover. The study identified both potential trade-offs between upland rice and paddy rice production, and also some potential synergies in the amount and timing of available irrigation water that could enhance the productivity of paddy rice systems. Study results provide some initial indications of the effects of these changes on total rice production, as well as the associated costs and benefits to upland farmers. Implications of these results on poverty and food security are considered.

ID: 3.12581

Assessing Aridity Changes and their linkages with Climatic Parameters in Warming Climate: Insights from Himachal Pradesh, India.

Pankaj Kumar
Yadav, Ashwani

Abstract/Description

Himalayan , including Lahaul-Spiti, Kinnaur, are highly vulnerable to climate change-driven temperature increases. These high-altitude arid regions experience extreme temperatures and limited precipitation, making them particularly sensitive to fluctuations in dryness. Understanding long-term changes in aridity is essential for assessing climate change impacts and developing conservation strategies. This study evaluates aridity trends in Indian Himachal pradesh from 1901 to 2022 using the Aridity Index (AI), defined as the ratio of annual precipitation (P) to potential evapotranspiration (PET). Data were sourced from CRU TS v4.08, a high-resolution climate dataset. The study area was classified into climatic zones based on AI values and analyzed across various seasons, including pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon, winter, and agricultural seasons. Findings indicate a significant decline in aridity across himachal regions, with northeastern areas transitioning toward hyper-arid conditions. Seasonal variations

ID: 3.12897

Climate-Driven Vineyard Shifts in mountain agroecosystems: Balancing Agronomic Gains and Biodiversity Threats

Simon Tscholl
Egarter Vigl, Lukas

Abstract/Description

Climate change is reshaping mountain agroecosystems, challenging traditional practices in regions where environmental conditions are rapidly evolving. As temperatures get warmer, suitable areas for agriculture shift to higher elevations. However, there is limited information on the potential of upward elevation shifts as a viable adaptation strategy for mountain vineyards and potential consequences for natural ecosystems and biodiversity, as current studies have predominantly focused on established lowland sites. By integrating multi-scale climate projections, land suitability analyses, and socio-ecological assessments, this research quantifies the extent of vineyard area loss at lower elevations, the potential for expansion in higher zones and ecological conflicts that might arise due to these shifts in elevation.

Preliminary modelling indicates that rising temperatures may render existing vineyard sites less viable, leading to a decline in traditional cultivation areas at lower elevations between 200 and 300m. Higher elevations above 1000m a.s.l. could emerge as promising options for climate change adaptation, potentially compensating for the losses incurred at lower altitudes. However, this upward shift poses significant socio-ecological challenges, such as disruption of local biodiversity, intensification of extensive grasslands and pastures or altered landscape aesthetics.

By contrasting the agronomic benefits of preserving and expanding viticultural areas through elevation shifts with the associated ecological risks for sensitive high-elevation ecosystems, this research offers an integrated framework for strategic land-use planning. The outcomes aim to inform adaptive management strategies that balance agricultural productivity and quality with the conservation of mountain biodiversity, ultimately contributing to more resilient mountain landscapes in the face of climate change.

ID: 3.13360

Assessing Aridity Changes in the Cold Desert Ecosystem of Western Himalaya in Warming Climate

Pankaj Kumar

Abstract/Description

West Himalayan cold deserts Lahaul-Spiti, Kinnaur and Ladakh are highly vulnerable to the changes that result from rise in temperatures globally. The high-altitude arid areas have limited precipitation and extreme temperature making them more sensitive to any variations in dryness. Therefore, understanding how aridity has changed over time in these regions will help assess the effects of climate change and formulate suitable conservation measures. A drought index, Aridity Index (AI), is computed as a ratio of annual precipitation (P) over potential evapotranspiration (PET). This study analyses trends in aridity seen in Indian cold deserts since 1901 till 2022 using AI. Data for this research was obtained from CRU TS v4.08 which is a dataset containing detailed high resolution monthly climatic information. The study area was classified into different climatic zones based on their AI values then looking at each season: pre-monsoon season, monsoon season, post-monsoon season, winter season and agricultural seaso

ID: 3.13415

Predicting plant turnover in the Global Alpine

Gwendolyn Peyre

Abstract/Description

A mere 3% of the Earth’s land surface is covered by the alpine biome, yet its contribution to mountain biodiversity and ecosystem services is unparalleled. Alpine ecosystems are also very sensitive to global change and already experience rapid upslope migrations and species turnover. In this study, we aim to explore spatial and temporal turnover in plant communities of the Global Alpine at present and under future climate change scenarios. For 27 main alpine regions, we performed General Dissimilarity Models (GDMs) on 11.867 sPlot vegetation data and 69 topo-environmental factors. The models assessed mean species turnover rates and identified their main drivers in every alpine region. Finally, we used predictions of the previously selected factors according to four climate change scenarios, to project species turnover for 2030, 2040 and 2050. Overall, Oceanian and African regions had the smallest turnover rates, while Andean and Himalayan regions had the highest ones. These results highlight the importance of environmental heterogeneity along sharp altitudinal gradients on species turnover. Despite drivers varying chiefly between regions, we observed stronger representation of seasonality factors in temperate regions and productivity factors in (sub-)tropical ones. Moreover, future predictions confirmed the high sensitivity of tropical alpine regions to climate change. Our results shed new light on the spatial patterns and future temporal trends of plant turnover in the Global Alpine and provide useful evidence to anticipate climate change impacts in these unique regions.