Private

FS 3.105

Mountain models

Details

Full Title
FS 3.105: Modeling Transformations of Mountain Landscapes: Opportunities and Threats
Scheduled
TBA
Location
TBA
Convener
Fausto Sarmiento
Co-Conveners
Neslihan Dal,
Assigned to Synthesis Workshop
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Thematic Focus
Multi-scale Modeling, Socio-Ecology, Sustainable Development
Keywords
Mountain modeling, Montology, Resilience, Consilience, Adaptation

Description

The multidimensional study of mountains allows geoecological elements and phenomena to be modelled. While mountains bring many opportunities with their parameters, they are also complicated under a range of threats during prospective scenarios of climate change. These characteristics require extra effort to understand local impacts without losing sight of global complexity of mountain socioecological systems and parameterizing their different models. More information is needed on how mountain landscapes are transforming under environmental changes, as observations in one mountain area can serve as a mirror forecasting or hindcasting change. Seeing the opportunities and threats for different cases will be key to developing modeled solutions for sustainable and regenerative development. In this context, we take a montological perspective on opportunities and threats, based on ecological, economic, sociological, ethnographic, and climatic models. This session emphasizes that geospatial knowledge should be attained from a montological perspective with a transdisciplinary strategy. Therefore, the session shows the multidimensional interaction of mountain environments. There is a need for studies that bring together different methodologies to investigate the changing structure and usage characteristics due to human activities, the problems caused by natural disasters, and the responses of ecosystems, the adaptation of mountain communities, and more. The synergy created by such a methodology can pave the way for new approaches in mountain research.

Submitted Abstracts

ID: 3.7918

A scorecard for transformational adaptation

Jan Cools
Fabri, Charlotte; Bjornavold, Amalie; Van Passel, Steven

Abstract/Description

In the Horizon 2020 project TransformAr, we developed a scorecard for transformational adaptation. The scorecard is intended as a tool to self-assess the potential of a project to achieve transformational adaptation. The socrecard is developed in parallel with the EU Policy Brief on Transformational Adaptation. We will explain the scorecard and the policy brief, and thereby present what is transformational adaptation, how it can be characterised and what are examples of transformational adaptation. The policy brief has been developed under the MIP4ADAPT platform, the secretariat of the EU Adaptation Mission. The participants will also understand the practical use of the scorecard for transformational adaptation

ID: 3.8232

Climate Change Impacts on Mountain Bioclimatic Zones Using High-Resolution Environmental Stratification

Robert Zomer
Trabucco, Antonio

Abstract/Description

Mountain ecosystems are among the most vulnerable to climate change, with rising temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns driving profound transformations in biodiversity, hydrology, and ecosystem services. High-resolution environmental stratification (EnS) provides a powerful approach to modeling these changes by delineating bioclimatic strata that reflect current and future climate conditions. This study applies a statistically derived global framework, based on downscaled CMIP6 Earth System Model projections, to assess the magnitude and spatial distribution of bioclimatic shifts in mountainous regions worldwide. Projected climate changes indicate that mountain bioclimatic zones will experience significant shifts in elevation and latitudinal extent by mid-century (2041–2060). Cold and mesic zones, which currently dominate many high-altitude regions, are projected to contract substantially under high-emission scenarios. Conversely, temperate and xeric zones are expected to expand into higher elevations, leading to increased aridification and altered hydrological cycles in regions such as the Himalayas, Andes, Alps, and Rocky Mountains. These changes threaten endemic alpine biodiversity, accelerate glacial melt, and disrupt water availability for downstream communities reliant on mountain-fed river systems. The EnS approach enables a fine-scale assessment of ecosystem responses to change, providing insights into potential range contractions of cold and other niche-adapted species and the upward migration of vegetation zones. Additionally, environmental stratification allows for the evaluation of climate impacts on ecosystem services, such as carbon sequestration and water regulation, which are crucial for sustaining both mountain ecosystems and human populations. Our findings underscore the urgency of adaptive conservation strategies to mitigate biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation in mountain regions. By leveraging high-resolution environmental stratification, this research offers a robust framework for policymakers and conservationists to anticipate and respond to climate-driven transformations in mountainous landscapes. The results provide critical guidance for regional adaptation planning, helping to safeguard biodiversity, water resources, and ecosystem stability in some of the world’s most climate-sensitive environments.

ID: 3.8683

Managing invasive Bracken fern (P.aquilinum) in the Mulanje Mountain Forest Reserve: A macroinvertebrate trait based

Jessy Baloyi
Baloyi, Jessy

Abstract/Description

Mulanje Mountain Forest Reserve (MMFR), a recognized biodiversity hotspot in southern Malawi, is increasingly threatened by invasive species, notably Pteridium aquilinum (bracken fern). This research investigates the spread of P. aquilinum along the Likhubula River, a vital water source for the Blantyre Water Board, while assessing its ecological impacts within MMFR. The ecological significance of the region and the critical role of mountains in maintaining water security and biodiversity in southern Africa, highlights the need for effective invasive species management strategies. The study adopts a macroinvertebrate trait-based approach (TBA) to examine the implications of P. aquilinum invasion. Aerial drone mapping combined with stratified random sampling was employed to assess the distribution of P. aquilinum across three sections of the river: upstream (Chambe Basin), middle stream (Dziwe la Nkhalamba), and downstream (Chitakale Trading Centre). This innovative use of drone technology enabled detailed spatial mapping of P. aquilinum distribution, facilitating a comprehensive analysis of associated macroinvertebrate communities and key water quality parameters, including pH, electrical conductivity (EC), dissolved oxygen (DO), and temperature. Results indicated that the trait-based approach was ineffective due to the limited representation of macroinvertebrate taxa meeting the hypothesized traits. Statistical analyses revealed significant relationships between water quality variables and macroinvertebrate diversity, particularly notable inverse correlations between electrical conductivity and the Average Score Per Taxon (ASPT). These findings underscore the need to integrate ecological assessments into invasive species management frameworks, aiming to enhance aquatic ecosystem health and resilience in the face of invasive threats. The research raises critical questions regarding the effectiveness of existing management practices for invasive species in mountainous ecosystems. It emphasizes the need for adaptive management strategies informed by ecological data to tackle the pervasive challenges posed by P. aquilinum. Moreover, the study highlights the importance of further research to refine trait characterization frameworks, which could inform more effective management practices. This study provides essential insights into the dynamics of invasive species in mountain ecosystems, underscoring the relevance of such research for science, policy, and pract

ID: 3.10473

Future scenarios against drivers of change: a comparative study of the mountain communities of Catac (Ancash) and Phinaya (Cusco) in the peruvian Andes

Nayda GarcÍa Mallma
Mendoza Ato, Angela; Fuentealba Durand, Beatriz

Abstract/Description

Changes in climate patterns and the retreat of tropical glaciers are generating profound transformations in mountain communities in the Peruvian Andes, who depend largely on natural resources for their subsistence. Understanding these dynamics and anticipating how high Andean territories may evolve is essential for local planning and adaptation. This research aims to compare three future scenarios for the year 2050 in the socio-ecological systems of the mountain communities of Cátac (North) and Phinaya (South), against environmental, social, economic and political drivers of change. An integrated approach was employed, combining secondary sources review, participant observation, interviews with local users, a scenario-building workshop with key stakeholders, and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) tools. Our results reveal converging projections in terms of climate vulnerability but diverging impacts of climate change due to variations in geography, economy, and local adaptation strategies. The socio-ecological scenarios, built from the knowledge and perception of local stakeholders together with GIS analysis, provide key information on the dynamics of change and possible futures in high Andean communities for informed decision-making.

ID: 3.10768

Assessing the Pressure on Fuel Biomass Extraction on Communal Forest Land in the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia: Patterns of Demand, Consumption, and Sustainability Challenges

Tenaw Tedela

Abstract/Description

The communal forestland in the Upper Blue Nile Basin is under significant pressure due to overstocking and mismanagement, leading to land degradation and reduced fuel wood resources. This overreliance on biomass energy contributes to deforestation, nutrient depletion, and decreased agricultural productivity, which poses threats to food security and economic stability. This study focused on four Agro-ecological Zones (ACZs): Kolla (Warm semi-arid), Dega (Cool sub-humid), Woyina Dega (Cool and humid), and Wourch (Very cool/alpine). The objective was to evaluate the impact of fuel biomass consumption on communal forestland, specifically analyzing patterns of demand and utilization. A total of 144 household surveys were conducted across the ACZs, with 36 households in each zone. The survey included both open stove users (77 households) and improved stove users (77 households). Fuel biomass was measured in terms of weight, length, and width using a 100kg balance and tape measure, with results categorized into bundles, baskets, and sacks. Interviews with female household members provided further insights into fuel demand and usage patterns. Results showed that the average weight of wood bundles ranged from 19.92kg to 20.17kg, while crop residue bundles weighed between 11.25kg and 12.42kg. A notable energy deficit was found in Wourch ACZ, where households consumed an average of only 3.81 bundles per week, compared to a demand of 7.92 bundles, resulting in a shortfall of 4.11 bundles. The average annual biomass consumption across all ACZs was 151.71kg per capita, with Dega ACZ peaking at 3658kg per household per year. Larger families tended to consume more biomass, but at a diminishing rate. Charcoal use was minimal in Wourch, where Eucalyptus woodlots were the primary source, while Woyina Dega experienced greater charcoal sales. Notably, dung comprised 61.9% of biomass consumption in Wourch. The findings highlight a critical mismatch between biomass resource availability and energy demand, underscoring the urgent need for sustainable management practices to restore communal forests and meet future energy requirements.

ID: 3.11324

Hills in Peril: Unplanned Urban Growth and the Escalating Slope Failure Risk in Shimla

Krishna Kumar

Abstract/Description

Shimla, a key hill town in the Indian Himalayas, faces increasing slope failure risks due to unplanned urban growth and rapid land use changes. Unregulated construction, deforestation, and hill slope modifications have destabilized the terrain, heightening disaster vulnerability. This study examines the impact of unplanned urban expansion and human activities, such as road cutting, deforestation, and poor drainage, on slope failure and landslide susceptibility. To assess these risks, the study utilizes both primary and secondary data. Primary data are collected through field surveys, recording building conditions, GPS coordinates, and local information. Secondary data are obtained from government departments in Himachal Pradesh, along with satellite images and a 30m Digital Elevation Model (DEM) for spatial analysis. GIS tools like ArcGIS and Erdas are used to analyze land use and land cover changes, slope stability, and geological conditions. Ground verification with GPS and local validation ensures data accuracy. By integrating remote sensing and GIS, hazard mapping and risk assessment identify vulnerable areas to support sustainable urban planning. The findings emphasize the urgent need for stricter building regulations, afforestation, and slope stabilization. Without intervention, Shimla’s expanding urban footprint will continue to endanger lives and infrastructure. The study advocates for policy reforms and risk-sensitive land use planning to mitigate future disasters.

ID: 3.11721

Water flows in a montane rice landscape: hydrologic modeling and upland-lowland interactions

Randall Ritzema

Abstract/Description

Populations in upland catchments of northern Lao PDR are dependent on two distinct rice agroecosystems for food security: upland rice, i.e. traditional rainfed rice cultivation on steep slopes within a shifting cultivation system; and paddy rice, which is grown in valley bottoms and irrigated from available stream water. Intensive levels of shifting cultivation in recent decades have led to degradation of hillslopes and unsustainable upland rice production, threatening local rice sufficiency. Water flows link the two agroecosystems, but complex hydrologic effects from land use changes on slopes via alteration of the shifting cultivation system, and resulting water availability for irrigation in the valley bottoms, complicate intervention strategy formulation. This study presents results from a hydrologic modeling analysis of a 3.5 km2 study catchment in northern Lao PDR. The analysis deployed a physically-based, spatially-distributed hydrologic model of the land phase of the hydrologic cycle, including evapotranspiration, detailed surface water processes and simplified sub-surface flow representations. The model was used to assess changes to irrigation water availability for paddy rice from several land use change options that lessen shifting cultivation intensity and enhance forest cover. The study identified both potential trade-offs between upland rice and paddy rice production, and also some potential synergies in the amount and timing of available irrigation water that could enhance the productivity of paddy rice systems. Study results provide some initial indications of the effects of these changes on total rice production, as well as the associated costs and benefits to upland farmers. Implications of these results on poverty and food security are considered.

ID: 3.12581

Assessing Aridity Changes and their linkages with Climatic Parameters in Warming Climate: Insights from Himachal Pradesh, India.

Pankaj Kumar
Yadav, Ashwani

Abstract/Description

Himalayan , including Lahaul-Spiti, Kinnaur, are highly vulnerable to climate change-driven temperature increases. These high-altitude arid regions experience extreme temperatures and limited precipitation, making them particularly sensitive to fluctuations in dryness. Understanding long-term changes in aridity is essential for assessing climate change impacts and developing conservation strategies. This study evaluates aridity trends in Indian Himachal pradesh from 1901 to 2022 using the Aridity Index (AI), defined as the ratio of annual precipitation (P) to potential evapotranspiration (PET). Data were sourced from CRU TS v4.08, a high-resolution climate dataset. The study area was classified into climatic zones based on AI values and analyzed across various seasons, including pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon, winter, and agricultural seasons. Findings indicate a significant decline in aridity across himachal regions, with northeastern areas transitioning toward hyper-arid conditions. Seasonal variations

ID: 3.12897

Climate-Driven Vineyard Shifts in mountain agroecosystems: Balancing Agronomic Gains and Biodiversity Threats

Simon Tscholl
Egarter Vigl, Lukas

Abstract/Description

Climate change is reshaping mountain agroecosystems, challenging traditional practices in regions where environmental conditions are rapidly evolving. As temperatures get warmer, suitable areas for agriculture shift to higher elevations. However, there is limited information on the potential of upward elevation shifts as a viable adaptation strategy for mountain vineyards and potential consequences for natural ecosystems and biodiversity, as current studies have predominantly focused on established lowland sites. By integrating multi-scale climate projections, land suitability analyses, and socio-ecological assessments, this research quantifies the extent of vineyard area loss at lower elevations, the potential for expansion in higher zones and ecological conflicts that might arise due to these shifts in elevation.

Preliminary modelling indicates that rising temperatures may render existing vineyard sites less viable, leading to a decline in traditional cultivation areas at lower elevations between 200 and 300m. Higher elevations above 1000m a.s.l. could emerge as promising options for climate change adaptation, potentially compensating for the losses incurred at lower altitudes. However, this upward shift poses significant socio-ecological challenges, such as disruption of local biodiversity, intensification of extensive grasslands and pastures or altered landscape aesthetics.

By contrasting the agronomic benefits of preserving and expanding viticultural areas through elevation shifts with the associated ecological risks for sensitive high-elevation ecosystems, this research offers an integrated framework for strategic land-use planning. The outcomes aim to inform adaptive management strategies that balance agricultural productivity and quality with the conservation of mountain biodiversity, ultimately contributing to more resilient mountain landscapes in the face of climate change.

ID: 3.13360

Assessing Aridity Changes in the Cold Desert Ecosystem of Western Himalaya in Warming Climate

Pankaj Kumar

Abstract/Description

West Himalayan cold deserts Lahaul-Spiti, Kinnaur and Ladakh are highly vulnerable to the changes that result from rise in temperatures globally. The high-altitude arid areas have limited precipitation and extreme temperature making them more sensitive to any variations in dryness. Therefore, understanding how aridity has changed over time in these regions will help assess the effects of climate change and formulate suitable conservation measures. A drought index, Aridity Index (AI), is computed as a ratio of annual precipitation (P) over potential evapotranspiration (PET). This study analyses trends in aridity seen in Indian cold deserts since 1901 till 2022 using AI. Data for this research was obtained from CRU TS v4.08 which is a dataset containing detailed high resolution monthly climatic information. The study area was classified into different climatic zones based on their AI values then looking at each season: pre-monsoon season, monsoon season, post-monsoon season, winter season and agricultural seaso

ID: 3.13415

Predicting plant turnover in the Global Alpine

Gwendolyn Peyre

Abstract/Description

A mere 3% of the Earth’s land surface is covered by the alpine biome, yet its contribution to mountain biodiversity and ecosystem services is unparalleled. Alpine ecosystems are also very sensitive to global change and already experience rapid upslope migrations and species turnover. In this study, we aim to explore spatial and temporal turnover in plant communities of the Global Alpine at present and under future climate change scenarios. For 27 main alpine regions, we performed General Dissimilarity Models (GDMs) on 11.867 sPlot vegetation data and 69 topo-environmental factors. The models assessed mean species turnover rates and identified their main drivers in every alpine region. Finally, we used predictions of the previously selected factors according to four climate change scenarios, to project species turnover for 2030, 2040 and 2050. Overall, Oceanian and African regions had the smallest turnover rates, while Andean and Himalayan regions had the highest ones. These results highlight the importance of environmental heterogeneity along sharp altitudinal gradients on species turnover. Despite drivers varying chiefly between regions, we observed stronger representation of seasonality factors in temperate regions and productivity factors in (sub-)tropical ones. Moreover, future predictions confirmed the high sensitivity of tropical alpine regions to climate change. Our results shed new light on the spatial patterns and future temporal trends of plant turnover in the Global Alpine and provide useful evidence to anticipate climate change impacts in these unique regions.

ID: 3.13524

The Bison Monitoring Study – From Reintroduction to Reconciliation to Resilience.

William Snow

Abstract/Description

Plains Bison, or Tatâga, are a culturally important species to the Stoney Nakoda people of the Rocky Mountains in Western Canada. In 2017, Parks Canada returned 16 head of Plains Bison to Banff National Park, and in 2025, this herd has now grown to over 130 head, and is thriving in Mînî Rhpa Mâkoche, or Banff National Park. The Bison Cultural Study, that was completed in 2022, sought to bring a more holistic approach to understanding, managing and mitigating how Plains Bison are managed in the Bison Reintroduction Zone, by providing an overview of the principle of Biculturalism, the Cultural Monitoring methodology,11 report recommendations, and an adaptation to the “Linear Holistic Model” by the late Vine Deloria Jr. In 2025, with the assistance of Braiding Knowledges Canada and Parks Canada, the Stoney Nakoda will embark on three year “Cultural Monitoring” study of the Bison herd, to better understand the Bison behavior, movements and habitat from a cultural perspective. The environmental and cultural benefits that Bison bring to landscapes may become clearer through a combined Western Science and Traditional Knowledge approach, that may serve as a nature-based solution to combat climate change, as well as keystone to cultural revitalization for the Stoney Nakoda People.

ID: 3.13706

Assessing Aridity Changes and their linkages with Climatic Parameters in Warming Climate: Insights from Himachal Pradesh, India.

Ankur Yadav

Abstract/Description

Himalayan cold deserts, including Lahaul-Spiti, Kinnaur, and Ladakh, are highly vulnerable to climate change-driven temperature increases. These high-altitude arid regions experience extreme temperatures and limited precipitation, making them particularly sensitive to fluctuations in dryness. Understanding long-term changes in aridity is essential for assessing climate change impacts and developing conservation strategies. This study evaluates aridity trends in Indian cold deserts from 1901 to 2022 using the Aridity Index (AI), defined as the ratio of annual precipitation (P) to potential evapotranspiration (PET). Data were sourced from CRU TS v4.08, a high-resolution climate dataset. The study area was classified into climatic zones based on AI values and analyzed across various seasons, including pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon, winter, and agricultural seasons. Findings indicate a significant decline in aridity across cold desert regions, with northeastern areas transitioning toward hyper-arid conditions. Seasonal variations were evident, with winter showing the most pronounced reduction in aridity due to the influence of western disturbances. The overall trend suggests a decline in dryness, as indicated by a positive AI trend slope over the observation period. In the rain shadow zone of Himachal Pradesh, cold desert regions are uniquely adapted to low precipitation due to their distinctive topography. However, increased precipitation in these areas may have adverse effects, such as soil erosion, destabilization of fragile landscapes, and landslides. Excess water can negatively impact native vegetation adapted to arid conditions, potentially causing root rot and a decline in plant health. Moreover, changes in precipitation can disrupt local ecosystems, altering species composition and threatening biodiversity. Local communities in these regions may face challenges related to infrastructure damage, shifts in agricultural practices, and heightened vulnerability to natural disasters. To mitigate these risks and ensure the long-term conservation of these fragile ecosystems, continuous monitoring and adaptive management strategies are crucial. Implementing sustainable land-use policies, promoting climate-resilient agricultural practices, and enhancing disaster preparedness will be essential in preserving the ecological and socio-economic stability of cold desert regions in Himachal Pradesh.

FS 3.103: Creating knowledge about alpine-treeline ecotones in changing mountains

FS 3.500: Ecological impacts of droughts: present and future

#IMC: September 14 - 18 2025

FS 3.105

Mountain models

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