#IMC: September 14 - 18 2025

Future scenarios against drivers of change: a comparative study of the mountain communities of Catac (Ancash) and Phinaya (Cusco) in the peruvian Andes

Assigned Session: FS 3.105: Modeling Transformations of Mountain Landscapes: Opportunities and Threats

Abstract ID: 3.10473 | Accepted as Talk | Poster | TBA | TBA

Nayda GarcÍa Mallma (0)
Mendoza Ato, Angela (1), Fuentealba Durand, Beatriz (1)
Nayda GarcÍa Mallma ((0) NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF SAINT ANTHONY THE ABBOT IN CUZCO, AV. LA CULTURA L14 PRADO, 08000, CUSCO, PERU, PE)
Mendoza Ato, Angela (1), Fuentealba Durand, Beatriz (1)

(0) NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF SAINT ANTHONY THE ABBOT IN CUZCO, AV. LA CULTURA L14 PRADO, 08000, CUSCO, PERU, PE
(1) INAIGEM, Av. Centenario 2656, Huaraz 02002, Perú

(1) INAIGEM, Av. Centenario 2656, Huaraz 02002, Perú

Categories: Resources, Socio-Ecology, Sustainable Development
Keywords: Climate change, socio-ecological systems, future scenarios, drivers change, mountain communities

Categories: Resources, Socio-Ecology, Sustainable Development
Keywords: Climate change, socio-ecological systems, future scenarios, drivers change, mountain communities

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Changes in climate patterns and the retreat of tropical glaciers are generating profound transformations in mountain communities in the Peruvian Andes, who depend largely on natural resources for their subsistence. Understanding these dynamics and anticipating how high Andean territories may evolve is essential for local planning and adaptation. This research aims to compare three future scenarios for the year 2050 in the socio-ecological systems of the mountain communities of Cátac (North) and Phinaya (South), against environmental, social, economic and political drivers of change. An integrated approach was employed, combining secondary sources review, participant observation, interviews with local users, a scenario-building workshop with key stakeholders, and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) tools. Our results reveal converging projections in terms of climate vulnerability but diverging impacts of climate change due to variations in geography, economy, and local adaptation strategies. The socio-ecological scenarios, built from the knowledge and perception of local stakeholders together with GIS analysis, provide key information on the dynamics of change and possible futures in high Andean communities for informed decision-making.

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