Private

FS 3.148

Glacier and permafrost risks in a changing climate

Details

  • Full Title

    FS 3.148: Glacier and permafrost risks in a changing climate
  • Scheduled

    Talks - Part I:
    2025-09-17, 13:30 - 15:00 (LT), SOWI – HS 3
    Talks - Part II:
    2025-09-17, 16:00 - 17:30 (LT), SOWI – HS 3
    Posters:
    2025-09-17, 15:00 - 16:00 (LT), SOWI – Garden
  • Convener

  • Assigned to Synthesis Workshop

    ---
  • Thematic Focus

    Cryo- & Hydrosphere, Hazards
  • Keywords

    Cryosphere, Hazard, Risk, Disaster Risk Management

Description

The cryosphere is a key component of high mountain systems, controlling their dynamics. Climate change is causing unprecedented changes in the cryosphere, with severe consequences on natural instability. Glacier and permafrost hazards, which are the focus of the IACS/IPA Standing Group GAPHAZ, existed in the past, but are currently changing in size, frequency, type and location in response to ongoing climate change, sometimes producing catastrophic process chains. This session invites contributions aimed at enhancing our understanding of such hazards, including glacial lake outburst floods, ice and rock avalanches from steep glaciers and frozen slopes, glacier surges, destabilization of rock glaciers and other periglacial slope movements, and the interactions with earthquakes and volcanic activity. We welcome contributions that consider past, present and future hazards, as well as all components of risk. Contributions that provide insights into recent events, hazard and risk assessment, monitoring and modeling, and approaches to manage disaster risks in high mountain regions, are encouraged.

Registered Abstracts

ID: 3.8743

How are scientific knowledge and risk management of glacial and periglacial processes influenced by Alpine catastrophic events ?

Juliette Bazin
Ravanel, Ludovic; Caroly, Sandrine

Abstract/Description

Mass movements of glacial and periglacial origin intensify with the climate crisis. Consequently, attempts are being made to inventory these events by hazard type or region. The scientific literature increasingly focuses on understanding causes, failure mechanisms, and propagation of recent and past events. Less attention is given to understanding and analysing risk management, which is the protection/prevention link between hazards and society.

We have therefore created an Alpine database of ice avalanches, GLOFs, debris flows, rock falls and rock avalanches that have threatened valleys in the last centuries. The selected events are those that required advanced scientific research and/or risk management in order to better understand glacial and periglacial processes. Our research aims to contextualize the events temporally, as they occur at given time and climate, and spatially, the high Alpine regions being distributed over different countries. We have also adopted a social approach since the events exist as elements perceived and interpreted by societies. Since a phenomenon becomes an event if society considers it to be a risk, we can ask ourselves how it is considered by society.

Through a geochronology derived from the database (c. 200 events selected in more than 120 watersheds), we try to understand how glacial and periglacial hazards are perceived and considered from the risk management perspective. Over the past 20 years, this management at national and international levels has intensified, moving from a local approach to a wider, organized, and multi-disciplinary approach.

ID: 3.9999

Tumbling & rumbling: examining environmental controls on slope stability at Portage Glacier, Alaska

Jane Walden
Jacquemart, Mylène; Gräff, Dominik; Häusler, Mauro; Higman, Bretwood; Horgan, Huw; Lemaire, Emilie; Moser, Raphael; Walter, Fabian; Welty, Ethan; Manconi, Andrea; Farinotti, Daniel

Abstract/Description

Global glacier mass loss can have adverse effects on slope stability due to the thermodynamic, mechanical, and hydrological changes occurring in the subsurface during and following glacier disappearance. In Alaska, glacier mass loss is particularly rapid and the close proximity of unstable slopes to the termini of rapidly retreating marine- or lake-terminating glaciers means that some landslides pose a tsunami risk. One such case is at Portage Glacier, Southcentral Alaska, where two large, active landslides border a rapidly thinning and retreating glacier adjacent to a deep lake. At this site, we seek to understand the factors controlling slope motion at weekly to seasonal time scales, and how those controls evolve over time.
We conducted measurements over the course of three years, installing geophones, GNSS receivers, and a time-lapse camera to monitor the landslides, as well as ablation stakes on the glacier. A nearby weather station provides meteorological measurements at up to hourly resolution. These data are supplemented by high-resolution DEMs and satellite imagery. We localize rockfall events using the seismic data and compare this to movement hotspots using feature tracking of the time-lapse imagery, which we put into context with slope velocities from the GNSS, local precipitation events, as well as periods of higher melt rates or faster glacier velocities.
The combined datasets provide a holistic picture of the various ongoing processes within these landslides, allowing us to disentangle destabilization mechanisms related to debuttressing, glacial erosion, pore water pressure variations, and seismic activity.

ID: 3.10174

Glacier-related hazard: the case of the proglacial Bossons lake and its artificial drainage during summer 2023

Olivier Gagliardini
Vincent, Christian; Thibert, Emmanuel; Piard, Luc; Gimbert, Florent; Jourdain, Bruno; Gilbert, Adrien; Laarman, Olivier; Bonnefoy-Demongeot, Mylène; Fontaine, Firmin; Buffet, Alexis; Ogier, Christophe

Abstract/Description

A proglacial lake started to form since 2015 on the right side of the Bossons Glacier (French Mont Blanc Alps). Given this lake was dammed by the glacier on its left bank, it has expanded and deepened over time. As the intensity and probability of a sudden drainage through a subglacial channel have increased over time, it has been decided to drain artificially the lake during the summer of 2023. To achieve this, an overflow channel was mechanically dug on the glacier to initiate the drainage, which then took place naturally by incising the channel into the ice thanks to the thermal erosion induced by the water flow. The entire lake was emptied in less than a week by incising a channel more than 6 m deep in the glacier. As our ability to predict the course of such overflow drainage (maximum discharge and duration of drainage) was limited, we took advantage of the opportunity to investigate the breaching of an ice dam. For this purpose, we deployed a number of instruments in the channel for the duration of the drainage. The data acquired during the lake drainage and their analysis will be presented. Our results are then compared to the well-documented drainage of Rochemelon lake (2005, French Alps) and Plaine Morte lake (2019, Switzerland Alps).

ID: 3.10702

Linking Progressive Rock Slope Deformation to Glacier Thinning at Portage Glacier

Emilie Lemaire
Walden, Jane; Dufresne, Anja; Higman, Bretwood; Hamdi, Pooya; Manconi, Andrea; Jacquemart, Mylène; Amann, Florian

Abstract/Description

Glaciers play a fundamental role in shaping mountainous landscapes. As they retreat and thin, the loss of ice can influence the stability of adjacent rock slopes. However, not all slopes currently undergoing glacier retreat, nor those that were previously covered by glaciers, are susceptible to failure. The impact of glacier retreat and thinning on slope stability is mainly shaped by the structural geological settings and the associated failure mechanisms, though the timing can be coincident or delayed with respect to glacier disappearance. The slopes adjacent to Portage Glacier, Alaska, provide an insightful case study for examining the complex interactions between glacier dynamics and slope (in)stability. This study focuses on two large rock slope instabilities situated above the thinning and retreating Portage Glacier and its associated proglacial lake. To explore the relationship between glacier change and slope deformation, we employed a combination of field observations, remote sensing techniques, and kinematic analysis. Our findings indicate that glacier thinning drives the progressive development of these two rock slope instabilities, with deformations initiating once a critical glacier thickness threshold is exceeded. Near the instabilities, unfavorable structural conditions and kinematic freedom facilitate rock mass movement. However, up-glacier from the two instabilities, the structural conditions become more favorable for stability, with no signs of deep-seated rock slope instabilities currently observed.

ID: 3.10750

Combined change detection analysis to investigate the impact of extreme meteorological events on natural instability in high mountains

Erica Matta
Zittlau, Milena; Bosso, Davide; Nigrelli, Guido; Chiarle, Marta

Abstract/Description

Over the last twenty years, various hazardous geomorphic processes occurred in high mountain environments, exacerbated by climate change and cryosphere degradation. These processes primarily take place during warmer months, when convectional rainfall or melt-related processes occur, and unfrozen sediments provide debris to be mobilized. Mapping their environmental impacts is important both for identifying affected areas, and for a deeper understanding of the underlying natural processes. We propose a land/water combined change detection analysis, based on satellite imagery and freely available data and tools, to be applied on occasion of extreme precipitations. Our approach is grounded in the idea that heavy rainfalls can cause two processes in mountainous areas: mobilization of debris along the hydrographic network, and sediment supply to water flows and water bodies. The first process is detected using a Land Cover Change Detection (LCCD) based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), while the second is identified through a Water Colour Change Detection (WCCD) based on water chromaticity analysis. Both LCCD and WCCD are performed separately by analysing pre- and post-event Sentinel-2 images and calculating the difference between post-event and pre-event conditions. The resulting LCCD and WCCD maps are then aggregated at catchment level counting the number of pixels that underwent land cover changes (LCCD), and calculating the average water colour difference of the water bodies within the catchment area (WCCD). Each catchment is assigned an increasing value according to its statistical deviation from the median behaviour within the area affected by the extreme event. Combining LCCD and WCCD values, a severity map of the event is generated, highlighting the catchments most affected by the rainfall’s consequences. The proposed methodology was applied to two extreme meteorological events occurred in the northern part of Italy on June 29-30 and September 4-5, 2024. It shows promise for providing a quick assessment of the impacts of extreme rainfall events across large areas (e.g. entire or multiple Italian regions). It can potentially be applied to any mountainous region worldwide, with the following main requirements: a detailed hydrographic network and Sentinel-2 imagery as cloud free as possible. Replication efforts are needed to validate the methodology’s broader applicability.

ID: 3.10864

Rockfalls in the Mont-Blanc massif (France) since the Little Ice Age. Quantification of volumes, frequency, and erosion rates by Terrestrial Laser Scanning and cosmogenic nuclides

Léa Courtial-Manent
Mugnier, Jean-Louis; Ravanel, Ludovic

Abstract/Description

The frequency of high-elevation rockfalls in the Alps has increased significantly over the past two decades, regularly making headlines in the media. Numerous studies have shown that this increase is largely attributed to the ongoing climate crisis and associated permafrost degradation. However, the temporal and spatial variability of erosion rates in these environments remains insufficiently constrained. We aim to understand the dynamics of erosion and rockfalls in the Mont-Blanc massif (French Alps) by quantifying erosion rates and identifying links between the climate crisis and the frequency of these processes. We propose an original approach combining two complementary methods: analysis of cosmogenic nuclides (10Be) concentration in supraglacial clasts for long-term estimates (centuries) and terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) for short-term erosion rates (years). By integrating these complementary datasets, we assess both sustained and recent changes in high-alpine erosion dynamics.

Our results reveal significant differences in erosion dynamics between the massif’s NW side, including the Mer de Glace catchment area, and SE side, which includes the Brouillard and Frêney glacier catchment areas. Long-term erosion rates reach 1.3 ± 0.7 mm per year on the former (elevations below 3950 m a.s.l.) and 0.2 ± 0.1 mm per year on the latter (southeast-facing slopes and elevations above 3,950 m a.s.l.). Regarding the TLS data, we documented over 750 rockfalls (1–15,500 m³, 2005–2022). The TLS indicates a notable acceleration in erosion rates, especially in the past decade. On the NW side, rates increased from 4.0 mm per year (2005 2011) to 26.7 mm per year (2011 2018), stabilizing at 23.4 mm per year (2018 2022). On the SE side, while erosion rates were initially lower, they have risen significantly, from 0.7 mm per year (2005 2011) to 15.9 mm per year (2018 2022), indicating a growing sensitivity to recent thermal fluctuations.

These findings underscore the intensification of high-altitude erosion in response to the climate crisis, particularly through glacier retreat and permafrost degradation. The observed acceleration in rockfalls has significant implications for hazard assessment and risk management in high-alpine environments and the long-term stability of high-mountain environments.

ID: 3.10926

Monitoring glacier lake outburst locations in Norway using Sentinel 1- and -2

Liss Marie Andreassen
Enzenhofer, Ursula; Kjøllmoen, Bjarne; Lappe, Ronja; Elvehøy, Hallgeir

Abstract/Description

A jøkulhlaup or Glacier Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) is a sudden release of water from a glacier lake. In mainland Norway more than 160 GLOF events from 30 glacier lake locations are registered. The water source can be a glacier-dammed lake, a pro-glacial moraine-dammed lake or water stored within, under or on the glacier. One example is Nedre Demmevatn, a glacier dammed lake at the north side of the outlet glacier Rembesdalskåka, Hardangerjøkulen. Catastrophic jøkulhlaups occurred in 1893 og 1937 and led to construction of drainage tunnels to avoid the outburst floods. Since 2014 annual GLOFs have occurred due to the glacier thinning. Repeat glacier lake inventories from satellite data has revealed a growth in glacier lakes in the recent decades due to glacier retreat. About 40 glacier lakes with potential for GLOFs are currently monitored using Sentinel-1 and -2 data. In this study we give an overview of registered GLOF events in Norway and we present ongoing field investigations on Nedre Demmevatnet that are carried out to better understand the processes. We also discuss possibilities for improving standard mapping techniques for glacier lakes. Manual or semi automatic methods are commonly used, often requiring labour-intensive post-processing to improve accuracy. Recent advancements in machine learning offer promising alternatives, enabling more efficient and accurate mapping by integrating multiple input data sources. We present a fully automated workflow, implemented in Google Earth Engine and Python, that is expected to improve the efficiency and reproducibility of glacier lake mapping. A comparison of the results with Norway’s most recent glacier lake inventory from 2018/19 shows further glacier retreat with associated lake expansion and formation of new lakes.

ID: 3.11045

Bridging the Adaptation Gap: Assessing GLOF Risks and Response Strategies in the Hindu Kush Himalaya.

Dipesh Chapagain
Shrestha, Finu; Joshi, Sharad; Shrestha, Susen; Schneiderbauer, Stefan

Abstract/Description

Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) pose a significant and growing threat to the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region, which is home to over 270 million people and provides lifelines to 2.1 billion people downstream. Accelerated glacier retreat due to rising temperatures has contributed to the rapid formation and expansion of glacial lakes. Adopting a transdisciplinary science-policy perspective, this study examines GLOF risks alongside response strategies adopted by HKH countries and the available international assistance supporting their implementation to identify critical adaptation gaps. It further proposes strategies to bridge GLOF adaptation gaps and strengthen adaptation governance in the region. An analysis of 493 historical GLOF events from 1533 to 2024 highlights increasing risks exacerbated by climate change. Additionally, a review of national adaptation planning instruments submitted by the HKH governments—including National Adaptation Plans (NAPs), Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), and National Communications (NCs)—reveals significant shortcomings in recognizing GLOF-specific adaptation needs, long-term adaptation strategies, and transboundary collaboration. Despite the escalating threat, funding for GLOF-specific projects under major post-2015 climate finance mechanisms remains limited, exposing critical gaps in adaptation finance, technology, and institutional capacity. This study underscores the urgent need to integrate GLOF risks into governments’ adaptation policies and plans, enhance regional cooperation, and ensure sustainable financial, technical, and institutional support. Our findings emphasize the importance of strengthening early warning systems, establishing robust monitoring mechanisms, fostering community resilience, and promoting transboundary adaptation initiatives to mitigate future risks and support climate-resilient development in the HKH region.

ID: 3.11339

InSAR-based Modelling and Monitoring of Permafrost-induced Deformation in Indian Himalayas

Luvkesh Attri
Ramsankaran, RAAJ

Abstract/Description

Permafrost is a crucial component of the Earth’s cryosphere, influencing global climate systems, ecosystems, and human infrastructure. While well-studied in the Arctic, the Alps, and other permafrost regions, similar research on permafrost degradation remains limited in the Himalayas. Understanding permafrost degradation in this region is important due to its implications for related hazards such as landslides, ground instability, landscape changes and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). To frequently monitor these landscapes, we employed a large-scale remote sensing approach, interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) in the Tso Kar valley, Ladakh to observe seasonal and annual ground deformation. This analysis offers insights to permafrost degradation and seasonal freeze-thaw cycle of active layer thickness (ALT). We utilized Sentinel-1A/B SAR data acquired from March 2019 to November 2023 to monitor seasonal and annual surface deformation using SBAS-InSAR approach. Two inversion algorithms, least squares (LS) and weighted least squares (WLS), were applied to estimate the time-series deformation patterns. Our findings indicate that the seasonal deformation amplitude ranges from 10 to 25mm and the annual mean vertical deformation trend varies from -10 to -30mm/yr. To further characterize ground deformation, we combined data from both ascending and descending passes to derive the vertical and horizontal component of the deformation. Since line-of-sight (LOS) displacement alone cannot be directly linked to permafrost thawing or ALT changes, computing vertical deformation component is essential. Our preliminary findings indicate cumulative vertical deformation ranging from -10 to -40mm and the East-West movement between -15 to 18mm over study period. These preliminary results show noticeable variations in seasonal and annual ground deformation patterns suggesting ongoing changes in permafrost dynamics. This underscores the critical need for comprehensive studies in the Indian Himalayas to better understand permafrost dynamics, assess associated hazards, and establish long-term monitoring strategies. Given the limitations of C-band SAR data, alternative SAR datasets such as NISAR and ALOS should be explored, for long-term monitoring. Simultaneously, there is an urgent need for extensive ground temperature monitoring to effectively study and model the current state of permafrost degradation and active layer dynamics on a broader spatial scale.

ID: 3.11618

Recent morphological evolution of the Belvedere Glacier basin and glacier hazard: insights from multi-temporal analysis with UAV and historical photogrammetry

Andrea Tamburini
Ioli, Francesco; Bettoni, Manuele; Mortara, Giovanni; Pinto, Livio

Abstract/Description

The Belvedere Glacier (Monte Rosa East face, Western Italian Alps) is a debris-covered valley glacier surrounded by steep peaks reaching 4,000 m a.s.l. Climate-driven instabilities have caused significant morphological changes, increasing risks to the nearby municipality of Macugnaga. An extraordinary surge-type evolution of the Belvedere Glacier in summer 2002, was responsible for a rapid increase of ice thickness along the 4 km long glacial tongue and the formation of a huge supraglacial lake known as “Effimero Lake” which drained in summer 2003. Starting from 2005, the atypical ice thickening related to the surge was followed by a dramatic shrinking of the glacial tongue with an ice thickness loss of over 70 meters until now. This resulted in a generalized destabilization of LIA moraines, as well as a reactivation of ancient moraine destabilization phenomena which were considered stabilized until a few years ago. In recent years, extreme weather events have further impacted the Belvedere Glacier basin. A large debris flow originated from the Castelfranco gully occurred in August 2023, involving ~200,000 m³ of material that accumulated on the glacier and in the Anza River’s bed, altering hydrological dynamics. Severe floods in June and September 2024 mobilized debris, triggering significant damage in Macugnaga. Since 2015, the Belvedere Glacier has been extensively monitored with yearly UAV photogrammetric surveys and in-situ GNSS measurements. This effort was led by Politecnico di Milano and Politecnico di Torino. UAV surveys produced decimetric-accurate 3D photogrammetric models of the glacier and the LIA moraines, while historical aerial images (1977, 1991, 2001) were digitized and processed to reconstruct the glacier’s long-term evolution, including the surge period. The comparison of multitemporal photogrammetric models, combined with conventional field measurements, enabled the estimation of the glacier’s annual net mass balance and a detailed assessment of its morphological evolution over the past decade. High-resolution 3D models allowed for the detection and quantification of the reactivation of LIA moraine mobilization, which had previously stabilized after the surge event. Post-event surveys further provided precise measurements of debris accumulation on the glacier, and the effects of the moraine disintegration, and broader geomorphological changes within the glacier basin.

ID: 3.11631

A preliminary study of permanent snow cover in peruvian rock glaciers

Katy Damacia Medina Marcos
Loarte, Edwin; León, Hairo; Alejo-Mosquera, Miluska; Úbeda, Jose

Abstract/Description

Rock glaciers in Peru are key components of mountain permafrost, playing a fundamental role in terrain stability and water availability. However, their dynamics and the associated feeding processes, such as snow persistence, remain poorly understood. This study assesses the relationship between permanent snow cover and rock glaciers in the Peruvian Andes, focusing on its potential influence on the natural hazards characteristic of these regions.
More than 1,200 rock glaciers classified as active or transitional were analyzed using the Maximum Snow Extent (MSE) layer from the MOD10A2 MODIS product from 2002 to 2021. Permanent snow cover was defined as areas with a persistence equal to or greater than 80%. The results indicate that approximately 12% of the total rock glacier area (~75 km²) is covered by persistent snow, with a higher concentration in active rock glaciers (~68%). These areas of long-lasting snow cover are primarily located in the southern Peruvian Andes, where lower temperatures due to higher altitude favor ice preservation.
From a natural hazard perspective, permanent snow cover can play a dual role. On one hand, it contributes to maintaining the internal ice content of rock glaciers, regulating their thermal and structural stability. Besides, variations in snow persistence may influence permafrost degradation, affecting terrain stability and increasing the likelihood of triggering geomorphological processes such as landslides and ground subsidence on steep slopes.
These findings highlight the importance of snow cover in the evolution of rock glaciers and their dynamics in relation to natural hazards in the Peruvian Andes. The identification of areas with high snow persistence provides relevant information for managing these environments, particularly in the current context of climate change and its impact on mountain landscape stability.

ID: 3.12143

Monitoring Glacier Evolution and Assessing Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) Hazard in the Bolivian Andes

Jamie Macmanaway

Abstract/Description

Continued deglaciation in the Bolivian Andes threatens regional water security and may result in increased vulnerability to geohazards. We analyse high spatial resolution (~3-5 m) satellite imagery to constrain annual glacier and glacial lake evolution across the Bolivian Andes between 2016 and 2022. The total glaciated area of the region decreased by 9.1%, from 316.6 ± 3.2 km2 to 287.8 ± 2.9 km2; a rate of loss of 4.8 km2 a-1. Concurrently, the number (total surface area) of glacial lakes increased by 2.6% (1.9%), from 704 (37.1 ± 0.7 km2) to 770 (37.8 ± 0.8 km2). A comprehensive glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) hazard analysis was undertaken for the 2022 lake inventory. The results of this identified nine lakes as ‘high hazard’. Additionally, a previously unreported GLOF event was discovered to have taken place in late 2019 or early 2020. Subglacial topographic analysis was undertaken to predict potential future sites for lake formation. We identified 60 potential sites of future lake development given continued deglaciation. The model was tested by applying it to areas where glaciers retreated between 2000 and 2022. This is the first time that an inventory of potential future lake sites has been produced for the region.

ID: 3.12640

Unveiling permafrost in the Pyrenees

Julia Garcia-Oteyza
Oliva, Marc; Ventura, Josep; Pérez, Claudia; Echevarría, Anna; Delmas, Magalí; Fernandes, Marcelo; Magnin, Florence; Lehmann, Benjamin; Valla, Pierre; Turu, Valentí; Ros, Xavier

Abstract/Description

The Pyrenees, a mountain range in southern Europe with a maximum elevation of 3404 m, are experiencing rapid transformations in their cryosphere driven by recent warming. The permafrost, a crucial component of the Pyrenean high mountains, is undergoing significant changes, although its response remains insufficiently studied despite associated hazards occurring in recent years, such as rockfalls and moraine collapses. Currently, the mean annual air temperature (MAAT) is located between 2950-3000 m altitude. Probable permafrost is found above 2700 m on north-facing slopes and above 3100 m on south-facing slopes. However, rock glacier activity has been detected with fronts as low as 2500 m above sea level, in environments with positive MAAT, indicating the presence of permafrost at lower elevations than expected. Here we present some of the preliminary results from the geophysical prospecting carried out in summer 2024 focusing on Magnetic Resonance Sounding (MRS) and Vertical electrical sounding (VES) in order to characterize subsurface frozen ground and water distribution in four rock glaciers: Ardiden (~2700), Besiberri (~2700 m), Broate (~2800 m) and Menera (~2500). Preliminary results indicate the existence of different layers of permafrost and/or buried ice with variable water content down to 25-45 m depth. While in one active rock glacier the frozen mass is continuous from ca. 3 to 45 m depth, the other three report two different layers at ca. 5-10 m, and below 20-25 m depth, which are associated with past morphogenic phases. These results will be also used to decide the sites for future permafrost boreholes that will be drilled in summer 2025 to monitor permafrost thermal state and assess its long-term evolution. The outcomes will contribute to global permafrost datasets and inform land management strategies in the Pyrenees.

ID: 3.12732

Monitoring permafrost degradation and its effects on high-mountain infrastructures

Chiara Crippa
Hartmeyer, Ingo; Mair, Volkmar; Gerald, Valentin; Bratus, Antonio

Abstract/Description

Mountain permafrost is widespread across the European Alps and can occur above 2300-2500 m a.s.l., depending on slope orientation, gradient, subsurface properties, latitude and regional climate. Even in the absence of visible indicators, permafrost exists in slopes, rock-faces, and sediments, playing a crucial role in the stability and longevity of high-alpine infrastructures. In recent years and decades, climate change has driven extensive permafrost degradation, leading to intensified rockfall activity and slope instability, which directly and indirectly impact high-alpine infrastructures across the Alps. In response to these challenges, we present the newly launched Frost.INI project (ITAT-24-005, Interreg V-A Italia-Österreich), which integrates in-situ geophysical methods and remote sensing techniques to generate comprehensive 3D characterizations of selected key test sites along the Italian-Austrian border. Among these, the Bus Tofana Cableways, the Grawand ridge at the summit station of the Schnalstal cable car, the Madritschjoch ski lift and Kitzsteinhorn are currently monitored through an integrated approach, employing a multi-method design that combines satellite-based multispectral and radar data, UAV imagery, and in-situ geophysical measurements such as continuous temperature measurements in boreholes, electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT), Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR), and the Electromagnetic (EM) method. This practice-oriented, two-year project (2025-2027), which involves research partners as well as public authorities and tourism stakeholders, will provide valuable insights into surface displacement patterns and ground surface properties around high-alpine infrastructures. The findings will improve our quantitative understanding of permafrost degradation trends and contribute to engineering and geological analyses. Ultimately, the project aims to support the development of digital twins of the studied slopes, offering both a representation of current conditions and a predictive tool for assessing permafrost evolution under changing environmental conditions and external triggers.

ID: 3.13383

Impacts and Downstream Propagation of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) in Afghanistan: A Case Study of the 2018 and 2021 Outbursts in Peshghor, Panjshir valley

Fayezurahman Azizi
Lane, Stuart

Abstract/Description

Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) pose a significant and growing risk in high mountainous regions. The rapidly changing climate is accelerating glacier retreats, which expands existing lakes and creates new ones, leading to an increased frequency of GLOFs. This risk is further intensified by the rising likelihood of GLOF triggers such as temperature increases, extreme rainfall, or ice collapse, resulting in severe downstream impacts. In the Hindukush Himalaya (HKH), particularly in Afghanistan region, studies and understanding on these triggering processes and downstream consequences remain very rare. We studied two catastrophic GLOF events in Peshghor, Panjshir Valley of Afghanistan: The Kunj-Peshghor GLOF (July 12, 2018) and the Bam-Tanab GLOF (July 4, 2021). Both events initiated by debris-ice dammed glacial lakes, caused massive socio-economic impacts, including loss of people, destruction of houses, irrigation canals, micro-hydropower and infrastructures. In this ongoing research we are planning to evaluate climatic drivers (pre-event) and downstream impacts (post-event), with a focus on hydrological changes in the river as well as flood inundation and propagations under different dam breaching scenarios, using remote sensing data, field-based assessments and the BASEMENT model. Our preliminary results show that the 2018 GLOF, occurred 43 days after lake formation, from a rapidly expanding lake on the surface of a debris-covered glacier, driven by rising temperatures and fast ice and snow-melting. The mean discharge has increased from 75 m³/sec to 160 m³/sec, mean water levels rise from 1.75 m to 2.50 m, and water turbidity peaked to over 1000 MTU in the main Panjshir river. And the sediment deposit dammed the Panjshir main river up to 1.7 km from the confluence. Similarly, the 2021 Bam-Tanab GLOF, occurred within 33 days after lake formation, triggered by a combination of temperature rise and a short rainfall event. Both outbursts were released through a subglacial channel, eroding ice and debris. These events indicate the increasing risk from rapidly growing lakes resulted by a climatic factor in the region. This study emphasizes the need for early warning systems and community resilience measures to GLOF hazards, with a particular emphasis on the role of sediment transport and water quality in flood impacts.

ID: 3.13499

The very active morphodynamics of the permafrost-affected rock walls of the French Alps during Fall 2024

Ludovic Ravanel
CAILHOL, Xavier; MAGNIN, Florence; GAUDILLERE, Damien

Abstract/Description

It has been shown that the climate crisis is leading to an increase in both the frequency and magnitude of rock slope failures in high mountain rock walls due to permafrost degradation, sometimes compounded by glacier debuttressing. However, the physical processes associated with permafrost degradation remain poorly understood. This presentation examines ten or so major events that occurred in the French Alps during the autumn of 2024. These events ranged from a 16,000 m³ rockfall on September 10th at Aiguille de Mesure (2812 m a.s.l.) in the Aiguilles Rouges massif – where such events had been rare or even unheard of for the past 10,000 years – to the rock avalanche on November 17th at Mont Pourri (3423 m a.s.l.) in the Vanoise massif, which involved 700,000 m³ of rock, making it the largest documented event in recent decades in a permafrost context in the French Alps. Temperatures recorded at various boreholes, 10 to 20 m deep, in the Mont-Blanc and Vanoise massifs offer insight into this unprecedented autumn sequence. The active layer on the north and northwest faces of Aiguille du Midi (3842 m a.s.l.) was the deepest ever recorded. At a depth of 20 m in the north face of Grande Motte (3653 m a.s.l.), unlike previous years when temperatures cooled by 0.05 to 0.1°C between June and October, 2024 saw no cooling at all. Instead, there was a plateau in temperature, which rose by almost 0.2°C within a single year.