Abstract ID: 3.12143 | Accepted as Talk | Talk/Oral | TBA | TBA

Continued deglaciation in the Bolivian Andes threatens regional water security and may result in increased vulnerability to geohazards. We analyse high spatial resolution (~3-5 m) satellite imagery to constrain annual glacier and glacial lake evolution across the Bolivian Andes between 2016 and 2022. The total glaciated area of the region decreased by 9.1%, from 316.6 ± 3.2 km2 to 287.8 ± 2.9 km2; a rate of loss of 4.8 km2 a-1. Concurrently, the number (total surface area) of glacial lakes increased by 2.6% (1.9%), from 704 (37.1 ± 0.7 km2) to 770 (37.8 ± 0.8 km2). A comprehensive glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) hazard analysis was undertaken for the 2022 lake inventory. The results of this identified nine lakes as ‘high hazard’. Additionally, a previously unreported GLOF event was discovered to have taken place in late 2019 or early 2020. Subglacial topographic analysis was undertaken to predict potential future sites for lake formation. We identified 60 potential sites of future lake development given continued deglaciation. The model was tested by applying it to areas where glaciers retreated between 2000 and 2022. This is the first time that an inventory of potential future lake sites has been produced for the region.