The Higher Ganga Basin (HGB) in the central Himalayas has experienced a significant increase in forest fire incidents in recent decades, driven by changing climatic conditions. This study investigates the rising trend of forest fires in this ecologically sensitive area, focusing on the interplay between climate change and fire dynamics. Using a baseline period of 2001–2024, which captures recent fire activity and climatic conditions, analyze temporal and spatial patterns of forest fires and their correlation with key climatic variables. To project future fire risks, a burn probability (BP) model was applied to simulate daily fire occurrence and spread for the future period (2025–2050). The model utilizes outputs from five global climate models (GCMs) under different climate scenarios. The results indicate that the average daily maximum temperature during the fire season is projected to increase in the future compared to the baseline, alongside changes in precipitation patterns. The average fire weather index (FWI) is also expected to rise, reflecting rising fire weather conditions. By comparing baseline and future projections, the study quantifies changes in burn probability (BP) and identifies high-risk zones for future fire activity. The findings highlight the importance of proactive fire management strategies, particularly in areas with higher BP values, to mitigate future forest fire impacts.