Tropical montane cloud forests (TMCFs) are ecosystems critically dependent on persistent cloud immersion, which shapes their hydrology, biodiversity, and ecological function. Due to their occurrence only at specific altitudinal and climatic thresholds, TMCFs are highly fragmented, biologically unique, and exceptionally sensitive to environmental changes. As such, they are considered prime indicators of global climate change impacts.

Climate projections suggest significant shifts in temperature and precipitation patterns, with tropical montane ecotones expected to migrate upward by over 100 meters under elevated CO₂ scenarios. This alone suggests complete replacement of many narrow-altitude TMCFs by other ecosystems, as well as the eviction of peak-range TMCFs.

Additionally, land-use and land-cover changes (LULCC), particularly deforestation for agriculture, have been shown to reduce cloud formation, especially during dry seasons. Large scale conversion of forest to agriculture alters surface-atmosphere interactions, as well as the timing and extent of energy fluxes, and ultimately the water balance. In Costa Rica’s Monteverde Cloud Forest Reserve, remote sensing data reveal a decline in dry season cloud cover over areas deforested for pineapple cultivation, whereas forested regions maintain consistent cloud formation.

This study investigates the interactions between LULCC (focusing on pineapple cultivation), vegetation cover, and local climate in the Monteverde Reserve, particularly how these factors influence water recycling and cloud immersion. Using high-resolution simulations from the ICON (Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic) model, for numerical weather prediction, validated with remote sensing data, this research analyzes LULCC impacts on precipitation, evapotranspiration, and atmospheric humidity. Despite challenges in modeling complex mountain climates, such analyses provide valuable insights into altered surface-atmosphere feedbacks. These interactions may exhibit nonlinear behaviors, potentially triggering abrupt local climate transitions and, thus putting pressure on the ecosystem.

Addressing these dynamics requires interdisciplinary collaboration, with contributions from climate science, remote sensing, forest ecology, and hydrology to improve our understanding and management of these vulnerable ecosystems.