Abstract ID: 3.13574 | Not reviewed | Requested as: Talk | TBA | TBA

Himalayan cold deserts, including Lahaul-Spiti, Kinnaur, and Ladakh, are highly sensitive to climate change, particularly rising temperatures. These high-altitude arid regions experience harsh climatic conditions with minimal precipitation, making them highly vulnerable to variations in dryness. Understanding long-term changes in aridity is crucial for evaluating climate change impacts and designing effective conservation strategies. This study investigates shifts in aridity across Indian cold deserts from 1901 to 2022 using the Aridity Index (AI), calculated as the ratio of annual precipitation (P) to potential evapotranspiration (PET). Climate data were sourced from CRU TS v4.08, a high-resolution dataset. The study classified the region into climatic zones based on AI values and examined seasonal variations, including pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon, winter, and agricultural seasons. Results indicate a notable decrease in aridity across cold desert regions, with northeastern areas becoming increasingly hyper-arid. Seasonal fluctuations were observed, with the most significant decline in aridity occurring during winter, influenced by western disturbances. The overall trend suggests a reduction in dryness, as indicated by a positive AI trend slope over time. While cold deserts in the rain shadow zone of Himachal Pradesh are well adapted to low precipitation, increasing rainfall may trigger negative consequences. These include soil erosion, landscape destabilization, and landslides. Excessive moisture can also harm vegetation adapted to arid conditions, leading to root rot and declining plant health. Changes in precipitation patterns may disrupt delicate ecosystems, shift species compositions, and threaten biodiversity. Drought conditions, both present and future, pose additional ecological risks, including reduced water availability, habitat degradation, and heightened stress on already scarce vegetation and wildlife. Prolonged dryness can limit plant growth, reduce primary productivity, and intensify desertification, further threatening local flora and fauna. Communities in these regions face increased risks from climate-driven changes, such as damage to infrastructure, altered agricultural productivity, and greater susceptibility to natural disasters. To safeguard these fragile ecosystems, long-term monitoring and adaptive management are essential. Sustainable land-use policies, climate-resilient farming methods, and enhanced disaster preparedness will be key to maintaining ecological and socio-econ