Private

FS 3.127

Mountain futures

Details

Full Title
FS 3.127: Mountain futures - Assessing challenges and co-producing solutions to mountain-social-ecological futures
Scheduled
TBA
Location
TBA
Convener
Adrienne Grêt-Regamey
Co-Conveners
Ignacio Palomo, Robert Marchant, Anaïs Zimmer, Carolina Adler, Sandra Lavorel, Bruno Locatelli,
Assigned to Synthesis Workshop
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Thematic Focus
Adaptation, Socio-Ecology, Sustainable Development
Keywords
mountain futures, adaptation, social-ecological systems, proglacial, visions

Description

The future is increasingly shaped by uncertainty as climate change drives unprecedented and irreversible ecosystem changes. These impacts are felt most acutely by those living at high elevations. Imagination and creativity are crucial to foster new ways to adapt to these challenges. How science is used to envision possible and desirable futures will help set the ambition that shapes who stands to benefit and the trade-offs associated with these processes of rapid transformation. For example, current narratives highlight the loss of glacier mass. However, emerging post-glacial ecosystems are also generating new ecosystems. Subsequent claims for the newly available land resources are often unclear and contested, urgently calling for management strategies to secure future ecosystem services. While many actors recognize the importance of new ecosystems and new challenges in mountains, new knowledge is needed to steer the development of these new futures towards sustainability and to envision possible transformation pathways. In particular, the potential for nature-based transformation is recognised as essential to change not only relations between people and nature but also relations among people in order to harness the potential of ecosystems for adaptation. Yet, beyond generic principles and a rapidly increasing number of place-based case studies, we don’t have a structured, evidence-based understanding of social-ecological adaptation in mountains. Developing and sharing new narratives and models with diverse stakeholders in mountain-social-ecological systems will be essential to set ambition that shapes equitable transformation. This focus session will collect new narratives and models that can shape responses to the on-going unprecedented climate-driven social-ecological changes in mountain areas around the world. We will discuss options for scaling transformation cases across locations (scaling out), into institutions and policy (scaling up) and into social values (scaling deep). We will interrogate regionally-relevant processes of networking for collective knowledge generation, implementation and effective governance in mountain regions. The inputs will be used to draft a global research agenda calling for forward-looking, just, collaborative, long-term approaches to address future impacts and risks across the world’s mountains.

Submitted Abstracts

ID: 3.5223

Eco-cultural Comparison of Alpine Farming Methods in Val Senales and Vercenik Valley Under Traditional Ecological Knowledge.

Oguz Kemal Basar
Wellstein, Camilla; Tauber, Elisabeth; Ugurlu, Emin

Abstract/Description

Transhumance is one of the oldest traditional agricultural methods in Val Senales, Italy, and in the Western Pontic Mountains, Turkey, and plays a huge role in shaping the mountain ecosystem. In Turkey, shepherds implement components of thousands of years of knowledge of pasture management but in Val Senales, pasture management was implemented on a similar landscape since Ötzi time. The aim of the paper focuses on the grazing species by the flocks on their summer routes in June and the cover values of dominant plant species using NDVI from drone orthophotos taken 35 meters high from the land of all the grazing sectors. Also, ethnography has been used to collect the traditional ecological knowledge of the shepherds. The paper is based on comparative ecological and ethnographic research of Val Senales, Italy, and Vercenik Valley in the Western Pontic mountains in Turkey. The herbarium technique was used in the grazing sectors to collect plant species that were grazed by the flock. These two regions have similar alpine climates, but different cultural backgrounds and pasture management methods based on shepherds’ knowledge. This bi-disciplinary research analyses how traditional ecological knowledge and scientific knowledge are coherent in transhumance and alpine farming systems. Spending time with the shepherds in both valleys in the summer months, the flocks’ monthly and daily grazing routes were mapped. Therefore, the dominant plant species were determined along the path from barns to the high pasture areas. The coherence of anthropological and ecological results might help create new policymaking of pasture management, shaping the alpine landscape and shepherds’ lives.

ID: 3.7390

The voices of glaciers: stories of grief and hope amidst shrinking glaciers in the tropics

Ignacio Palomo
Lana, Sofia; Rabatel, Antoine; Dangles, Olivier

Abstract/Description

As glacier melting continues unabated at all latitudes, the loss of glaciers in the tropics provides an early glimpse of how a world without ice might be. Here we present an UNESCO-IRD co-edited book that gives voice to 35 diverse individuals whose lives are tied to tropical glaciers, relating their feelings, perceptions and experiences, as well as how they are adapting to a transforming reality. These testimonies, ranging from local Indigenous voices, tourists, rangers, scientists, alpinists, artists and more, with perspectives from disciplines from anthropology to glaciology to sustainability science, provide a unique window on the felt effects of glacier loss. The images showing the loss of ice of glaciers in Africa, Latin America and Southeast Asia over the last 175 years tell their own powerful and incontrovertible story. By 2050, nearly half of the tropical glaciers in this book, including five UNESCO World Heritage Sites, four Biosphere Reserves and one Global Geopark, will be gone, and the majority will have lost around 90% of the surface area they covered during the Little Ice Age (circa 16th–19th centuries). This is a stark illustration of the impacts of climate change already occurring in some of the planet’s most vulnerable regions, and a bellwether of the future of glaciers and the people that depend on them elsewhere if we fail to mitigate it.

ID: 3.7589

The role of initiatives’ values, rules and knowledge for social-ecological transformations in Kilimanjaro

Berta Martin-Lopez

Abstract/Description

In this talk, we aim to present the ideas behind the project “Understanding social-ecological transformations: the role of initiatives’ values, rules and knowledge”, which is embedded within the Kilimanjaro Social-Ecological Systems (SES) Research Unit. In this project, we aim to gain a deep understanding of the transformative potential existing in the Kilimanjaro SES. To do so, we draw on two existing sustainability transformation frameworks: (1) sustainability initiatives understood as ‘Seeds of Good Anthropocenes’, and (2) values-rules-knowledge. Specifically, we aim to (1) identify clusters of social-ecological transformations based on the decision-making patterns of the ‘Seeds’ as defined by their values, rules, and knowledge, (2) to characterize the resulting clusters based on their transformative outcomes, and (3) to explore the potential to leverage transformations within and beyond the Kilimanjaro SES by understanding their amplification strategies (scaling out, up, and deep). In the presentation, we will introduce the methodological approach, designed after applying it in other social-ecological settings, and discuss how these methodological tools can contribute to comprehensively and systematically identifying and characterizing transformations.

ID: 3.8986

Plant’s Contributions to People and the Future of Post-Glacial Ecosystems

Gianalberto Losapio
Balestra, Simone; Khelidj, Nora

Abstract/Description

As climate change causes glacier retreat, mountain landscapes are undergoing irreversible transformations, creating both challenges and opportunities for biodiversity management and ecosystem services provisioning. While much attention has been given to glacier mass loss and ecological succession, less is known about the ecosystem functions and socio-economic implications of glacier retreat in newly deglaciated terrains. These emerging ecosystems provide novel habitats and functions, yet their future remains uncertain in the face of glacier extinction and competing land-use demands. Here, I present the novel concept of Plant’s Contributions to People (PCP) to assess how glacier biodiversity influences ecosystem functions and human well-being. Based on surveys of 99 plant species in four glacier environments in the Italian Alps—one of which (Trobio glacier) experienced complete extinction in 2023—we analyzed species-specific contributions to ecosystem services under present and projected future scenarios. Our findings reveal that glacier retreat drives biodiversity shifts while also altering key PCP categories, such as air quality regulation, soil health, and nutrient cycling. The greatest declines in PCP are associated with the loss of early-successional species, which initially enhance biodiversity through facilitation but later decline due to shrub encroachment and soil acidification in late successional stages. While future plant communities may provide PCP qualitatively similar to present-day ecosystems, the overall volume of contributions is expected to decrease with the loss of pioneer species. These results highlight the need for forward-looking conservation strategies that integrate ecological, social, and economic dimensions of biodiversity change. By combining long-term biodiversity monitoring with inclusive, future-oriented narratives, we can guide the sustainable development of emerging post-glacial landscapes, ensuring these novel ecosystems are not merely seen as remnants of loss but as opportunities for sustainable transformation. Collaborative management approaches will be crucial for securing biodiversity, ecosystem services, and socio-ecological resilience in high-altitude, post-glacial environments.

ID: 3.9067

Nature-based adaptation in mountains is shaped by the interconnected relationships between people and nature

Bruno Locatelli
Lavorel, Sandra

Abstract/Description

Adaptation to climate change in mountains is a dynamic social–ecological process, emerging from the complex interactions within and between social and ecological systems rather than solely from natural processes or human decisions. We introduce a novel analytical framework to assess these social–ecological relations in nature-based adaptation, categorizing them into social (people–people), ecological (nature–nature), and social–ecological (people–nature) interactions. By applying this framework to 25 case studies (including >10 in mountains), we examine the connections among these relations and identify distinct archetypes of social–ecological adaptation. Our findings indicate that adaptation actions incorporating stronger people–nature interactions also engage a greater number of social and ecological relations. We define four adaptation archetypes along a spectrum of people–nature interaction: (i) nature control, (ii) biodiversity-based, (iii) ecosystem services-based, and (iv) integrated approaches. This study advances the understanding of nature-based adaptation by emphasizing the need to integrate diverse social and ecological interactions, particularly in mountains. Our insights provide valuable guidance for the design and implementation of effective adaptation strategies and policies in mountains.

ID: 3.9998

Bridging perspectives: A transdisciplinary analysis of challenges and opportunities for sustainable livelihoods in Nepal’s mountain landscapes

Jacqueline Klingen
Ortiz, Willington; Raabe, Madeleine

Abstract/Description

This study explores the challenges and opportunities for sustainable livelihoods in Nepal’s mountain landscapes through a transdisciplinary methodology. By integrating local knowledge from practitioners in Nepal with insights from academic research, the study offers a comprehensive perspective on complex dynamics shaping the livelihoods of mountain communities in Nepal.

The research methodology consisted of several stages. First, a transdisciplinary conference was organized in Kathmandu to draw on the expertise of local experts and identify their perspectives on key challenges and opportunities for a sustainable future in Nepal’s mountain landscapes. The results were then synthesized in the form of key thematic fields. Building on this, a scoping literature review is conducted to assess the available scientific basis that describes the current state of the identified thematic fields. This also aims to refine the perspective on cross-sectoral dynamics and/or interactions that influence the livelihoods of Nepal mountain communities. Finally, the refined set of thematic fields is presented and discussed at online workshops with practitioners, experts and researchers from Nepal.

Preliminary findings point to fields of tension, in which change dynamics are exacerbating already challenging or even contradictory circumstances. Two examples of these fields of tension are: a) the accelerated out-migration – particularly of young men – is on the one side an important diversification of livelihoods of rural families, but on the other side it is also linked with a significant reduction of labour capacities and uneasy changes in the traditional role of women. b) Increased investments in large electric power infrastructure are already having a positive impact on national macroeconomic indices. However, Nepal’s domestic electricity consumption is not keeping pace, and dependence on energy imports (of fossil fuels) is also significantly increasing.

Thus, the preliminary findings highlight the interconnectedness of social-ecological, cultural, economic, political and technological changes. The transdisciplinary approach provides a holistic perspective to understand the complexity of the challenges and to identify opportunities for sustainable livelihoods in Nepal’s mountain landscapes.

ID: 3.10623

Challenges and Opportunities for Female Farmers Amid Climate Change: Insights from Austria, California and Switzerland

Judith Fischer
Altenbuchner, Christine

Abstract/Description

Mountain regions have unique climate vulnerabilities (e.g. drought, landslides), making the role of female farmers even more critical in promoting sustainable agricultural practices and climate change adaptation. The support and impact of female farmers in these challenging areas will be essential as they gain more influence in the agricultural landscape. Despite their significant contributions, female farmers in mountain regions are often underrepresented in policy strategies and community participation. In this paper we identify the challenges and opportunities of gender-transformative adaptation strategies for mountainous regions of Austria, Switzerland, and California. Qualitative data from 43 interviews with female farmers in livestock farming illustrates that despite the similarities in terms of topography and agricultural sector there are differences across the countries in terms of resource allocation, agency and achievements. Gender-transformative change may interpreted as a process, that is shaped by culture and needs context-specific interpretation on facilitating or impeding factors at the individual, farm/ household and community level. The main barriers are rooted in well-known gender disparities such as traditional gender norms, unequal decision-making power, and lack of access to resources like land and time at the individual level. The conclusion drawn from our findings suggest that the empowerment of female farmers in mountainous regions and the integration of gender-transformative policies are essential for a climate-adapted and sustainable agricultural future in these climate-vulnerable environments.

ID: 3.10807

Leveraging social-ecological system networks: Co-developing Theory of Change for desirable mountain futures

Paula Mayer
Grêt-Regamey, Adrienne

Abstract/Description

Dealing with the complex challenges of biodiversity loss and climate change requires deliberate transformation in social-ecological systems (SES) to protect biodiversity and ensure the sustained provision of Nature’s contributions to people (NCPs). This is particularly crucial in mountain areas, which harbor high biodiversity and provide critical NCPs to both upland and lowland communities, while these NCPs are shifting under climate and land use change. Nature-based solutions (NbS), implemented by change agents such as non-governmental organizations, represent promising catalysts to driving these transformations by reshaping human-environment relationships. However, the mechanisms by which NbS drive transformation and the role of SES transformative capacities remain poorly understood.

Our action research investigates how NbS change agents deliberately transform SES toward desirable mountain futures in two case studies: mountain communities in the Central Apennines, Italy, managing human-bear coexistence, and in the Cordillera Central, Peru, addressing climate change-related hazards and water scarcity. Specifically, we (1) evaluate the mechanisms through which NbS foster transformative changes within SES, (2) analyze SES network configurations as key transformative capacities supporting these processes, and (3) co-develop actionable Theory of Change strategies in collaboration with NbS change agents and stakeholders. Using a mixed-methods approach, we integrate participatory SES network mapping, interviews, and SES network analysis. Applying the Coupled Infrastructure Systems framework and SES network analysis, this research explores how NbS interventions reshape stakeholder interactions, the use and management of NCPs, alongside their influence on SES feedback dynamics. Finally, we explore how co-designing systemic Theory of Change with stakeholder committees can enhance transformative capacities, supporting effective, scalable, and equitable NbS initiatives that drive SES transformations towards desirable futures.

ID: 3.10929

Nature-Based Solutions for Sustainable Transformation in the Indian Himalayas: Integrating Ecological Restoration, Livelihoods, and Climate Resilience

Saurabh Krishnan

Abstract/Description

Mountain ecosystems are highly sensitive to environmental changes and anthropogenic pressures, necessitating sustainable transformation approaches that align with ecological integrity and socio-economic well-being. The Indian Himalayas, particularly in Uttarakhand, offer a critical landscape for studying nature-based transformation, which integrates ecological restoration, sustainable livelihoods, and climate resilience. This research explores the role of nature-based solutions (NbS) in transforming mountain landscapes in Uttarakhand by examining their impact on ecosystem services, biodiversity conservation, and local communities. The study is conducted in selected field sites across Uttarakhand and Himanchal Pradesh states including the alpine meadows, mid-hill forests, and riverine ecosystems, where various nature-based initiatives have been implemented. Using a mixed-method approach, this research combines remote sensing data, ecological surveys, and socio-economic assessments through participatory rural appraisal (PRA) techniques and stakeholder interviews. The study identifies key drivers of landscape degradation, such as deforestation, unsustainable tourism, and climate change, while assessing the effectiveness of restoration efforts like afforestation, agroforestry, watershed management, and eco-tourism models. The findings reveal that nature-based approaches not only enhance biodiversity but also contribute to local economic stability by fostering sustainable tourism, organic farming, and traditional conservation practices. The paper further evaluates the policy frameworks that support or hinder nature-based transformations and suggests policy recommendations for scaling up successful initiatives. Challenges such as governance issues, financial constraints, and community participation are discussed to provide a holistic perspective on implementing NbS in mountainous regions. This research highlights that integrating traditional ecological knowledge with modern conservation techniques is crucial for fostering resilience in the Indian Himalayas. By bridging the gap between environmental sustainability and community development, nature-based transformations can serve as a model for other mountainous regions worldwide facing similar ecological and socio-economic challenges.

ID: 3.11047

Technological and social innovation at the service of mountain regions and their resorts

Ian Serra
Travesset-Baro, Oriol; Brugulat, Montse; Bousquet, Julie; Torrente, Pierre; Godard, Philippe; Codorniu, Anna; Prato, Luana; Mateu, Pau; Inglés, Eduard; Pons, Marc

Abstract/Description

Mountain areas are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, with climate and societal shifts highlighting key vulnerabilities and challenging the development model of mountain regions, specifically around mountain resort towns. PITON, a cross-border Pyrenean project within the Interreg POCTEFA programme framework, explores future adaptation pathways and potential transition models for territories connected to their resorts by leveraging social and technological innovation. Social innovation fosters large-scale territorial transition by engaging all local stakeholders, beyond ski resort and broader tourism operators. Technological innovation involves the use of digital tools for data collection and analysis, aiming to improve understanding of resort-territory dynamics and assess impacts on natural resources and socioeconomic dynamics through a set of indicators.
The PITON methodology is based on three stages. The first stage, mainly based on focus groups and participatory methods, involves characterizing four case studies at the system level in collaboration with key stakeholders (i. e. the compromised ski area and the extended community region influenced by it). The second stage involves a design fiction method, engaging stakeholders in the creation of various future scenarios. Finally, the third stage is based on the co-creation of strategic prospective methods used to discuss and foresee the implications of the different future scenarios. Throughout this process, we co-develop and support the design of adaptation pathways and strategies to support the sustainable development of mountain regions, tourism destinations and local communities.
The present work details the methodologies applied in PITON, exploring stakeholder engagement strategies and digital tools. Early-stage results from pilot territories provide insights into emerging transition strategies for mountain regions.

ID: 3.11089

What matters for the future of Mountain Hay Meadows? A Q-study on Stakeholder views in Austria

Julian Janisch
Fiala, Valentin; Thaler, Thomas; Horvath, Clara; Gugerell, Katharina

Abstract/Description

Mountain hay meadows are valuable elements of the alpine cultural landscape that need an extensive management. Due to this management, they are a refuge for high biodiversity and also provide several ecosystem services, such as protection against natural hazards. They also play an important role in cultural heritage, traditions and in tourism. Last but not least, they produce high quality fodder for agricultural production. These multiple functions make it all the more regrettable that mountain hay meadows have been disappearing for several decades, either because of intensification or underuse and abandonment. As a result, they are protected under EU nature conservation legislation and are listed in Annex I of the Habitats Directive. However, recent assessments show that the current conservation status of mountain meadows in Europe is poor. This raises the question of how this habitat type can be preserved in the future and what factors play hereby a crucial role. To help answer this question, a Q-study was conducted with participants from different stakeholder groups relevant to mountain hay meadows in two regions of Austria (Tyrol and Carinthia) to identify particular viewpoints on the question “what matters for the future of mountain hay meadows”. The Q-method is an established semi-quantitative approach in which participants rank a number of statements that comprehensively represent a discourse on a particular topic. An inverted factor analysis of the statements allows the identification of viewpoints. The sample of participants was based on stakeholder mapping and included participants from different sectors (agriculture, nature conservation, tourism, decision makers, etc.) from the local to the national level. A total of 37 people participated. The results indicate that multiple heterogeneous viewpoints exist. Each emphasizes different factors that are important for the future of mountain hay meadows. One viewpoint focuses more on economic aspects, while others focus on cultural heritage or climate adaptation. The findings help to better understand the factors that hinder and promote the conservation of mountain hay meadows, as well as the conflicts and debates between different stakeholders in this regard. These findings can be used to develop appropriate conservation strategies in the future.

ID: 3.11199

Envisioning future scenarios for sustainable land management in a mountain system in northern Thailand using the KESHO Tool

Pattrawut Pusingha
Marchant, Robert

Abstract/Description

Mountain social-ecological systems face increasing pressures from land degradation, population growth, and climate change, necessitating innovative approaches to envision sustainable futures. We apply a participatory land use scenario planning tool to envision future land use scenarios for a mountain system in northern Thailand. Through participant engagement, we construct a historical change timeline that extends back some 50 years and can be used to identify driving forces and co-develop plausible futures. The process reveals both desirable and undesirable futures, as well as steps needed for achieving sustainability across the landscape where forests have been converted to cash crops. KESHO fosters collaborative future land use planning by integrating science-based and local knowledge while also enhancing the learning process and sense of ownership. This study provides critical insights for policymakers and communities striving to build sustainable land management of mountain systems in northern Thailand. The approach underscores the potential of participatory scenario planning in navigating sustainable and resilient mountain landscapes.

ID: 3.11239

Moving mountains towards a better future: from collective narratives of 2050 to a European policy roadmap

Emilia Schmitt
Maglietti-Smith, Isabella; Barjolle, Dominique; Redman, Mark

Abstract/Description

European Mountains are now threatened by climate warming twice as fast as in lowland areas, which adds on issues like lower investments and youth migrating away. Agriculture, and forestry, are particularly vulnerable to collapsing effects notably through precipitations changes and glaciers disappearing but also by migrations of predators. Addressing these challenges requires systemic policy interventions. To this end, a European policy roadmap has been developed, framing governance and policy changes necessary to enhance the sustainability and resilience of mountain areas. The roadmap was developed from work with multi-actor platforms (MAP) in 23 European regions, which brought together actors from different sectors (agriculture, industry, tourism, administration, research) and from all steps (production, processing, distribution) of a focal value chain (VC). Participatory research with the MAPs, such as workshops, interviews and surveys, were completed with mapping of land use in 2050 and integrated with youth engagement events, cross-regional comparisons and visits, and most importantly foresight exercises during which actors co-created scenarios for their VC in 2050. We first confirmed that stakeholders perceive important changes and are already implementing strategies, although adaptive capacity and agency widely varies across regions. Foresight results pointed to four archetypes emerging around the main strategies for VC development: economic driven, nature driven, knowledge & innovation driven and niche & diversification driven. These archetypes were one of the results showing that although mountains SES encompass immense diversity, common challenges and needs are prevalent, as well as a common sense of powerlessness. From these key-learnings, a common narrative advocating for policy and governance changes was framed into the roadmap for “unlocking the potential of Mountain Product Value Chains to enhance the sustainability and resilience of mountain areas”. It contains a policy intervention logic that highlights how policy instruments can be best leveraged for systemic implementation in the regions around building blocks that are thematic bundles of policy reforms. The key-learnings of the project, which we would like to present in this session, will be a very valuable insight for the global research agenda, in terms of content for sustainability in mountain regions and for collaborative research processes.

ID: 3.11301

Enhancing Community Resilience to Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) in the Indian Himalayas: Leveraging Community Insights for Effective Mitigation

Rinchen Lama

Abstract/Description

Climate change-driven glacial melt is intensifying Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) risks in the Indian Himalayan region, posing complex socio-ecological challenges for mountain communities. GLOFs destabilise landscapes, trigger downstream flooding and sedimentation and threaten ecosystems, critical infrastructure, lives and livelihoods in the Indian Himalayas. The rapid expansion of hydropower projects further amplifies these risks, exacerbating flood severity and endangering community safety. This ongoing research, conducted in Sikkim (Eastern Himalayas) and Himachal Pradesh (Western Himalayas) adopts a participatory approach to co-produce actionable GLOF risk management strategies. Through in-depth interviews, participatory workshops, and photo elicitation techniques, this study aims to map GLOF-related cascading and compounding risks, develop community-informed evidence-based protocols for GLOF preparedness and response. Initial findings from Sikkim case study indicate inadequate early warning systems and predominantly reactive disaster responses and heightened vulnerabilities due to hydropower dam failures and unregulated infrastructure expansion. This research will contribute to knowledge sharing and best practices for GLOF risk mitigation in mountain regions facing similar challenges. It also informs broader discussions on mountain social-ecological futures by providing insights into the compounded and cascading nature of disaster risks. Beyond regional implications, the findings support global mountain resilience strategies. At the community level, the study enhances awareness of GLOF risks, empowering local populations to take proactive measures for disaster preparedness.

ID: 3.11459

Shaping a New Research Agenda for Mountain Futures

Rob Marchant
Zimmer, Anaïs; Grêt-Regammey, Adrienne; Adler, Carolina; Palomo, Igancio

Abstract/Description

Mountain regions are increasingly facing uncertainties; as climate change accelerates irreversible shifts in ecosystems, glaciers, hydrology, and livelihoods. Mountain communities are particularly vulnerable, necessitating innovative and forward-thinking strategies to navigate these challenges. This study uses insights from researchers and local practitioners working in 24 case studies from 17 countries across six continents to explore change, possible and desirable futures. Insights from our diverse case studies are used to develop a global research framework embedded within local knowledge that tackles these new challenges and promotes sustainable development in mountain systems. Our analysis reveals five key principles for envisioning Mountain Futures. First, normative visioning empowers communities to collaboratively create transformative futures grounded in shared values and aspirations around sustainability. Second, transdisciplinary research and the integration of diverse knowledge systems are essential for developing holistic, culturally relevant adaptation strategies that incorporate diverse perspectives in decision-making. Third, bridging social and earth system sciences is crucial, requiring the integration of socio-economic and biophysical data through methods such as remote sensing, surveys, interviews, workshops, and field experiments. Fourth, adaptive responses are necessary to address the rapid ecological and socio-economic changes in mountain systems, considering both local and transboundary contexts and scales, and short- and long-term perspectives. Finally, governance systems must be flexible and collaborative to effectively manage dynamic environmental and social shifts, especially in transboundary regions where cooperative management frameworks and shared policies that address common goals are critical. These co-created approaches for envisioning Mountain Futures can help us to acknowledge the connections of ecosystems to human cultures and develop more holistic ways of understanding change and possible futures and their management applications. Building on these principles, we propose actionable recommendations to guide the future research agenda that supports policy and practice. By integrating these insights, the proposed research framework can support sustainable, resilient, and inclusive futures for mountain communities to navigate through the increasing challenges facing mountain social ecological systems.

ID: 3.11479

Integrating Remote Sensing and Participatory Scenario Planning to Model Agroforestry Futures in Ethiopia

Gebreyohannes Zenebe Teka
Zenebe, Amanuel; Birhane, Emiru; Girma, Atkilt; Hagazi, Niguse; Marchant, Robert; Gebrekirstos, Aster

Abstract/Description

Agroforestry plays a crucial role in enhancing climate resilience, restoring degraded landscapes, and improving rural livelihoods in Ethiopia. However, its successful implementation influenced by a complex mix of socio-environmental, political, and cultural factors. This study addresses the need for sustainable land-use planning by integrating remote sensing with the KESHO participatory scenario development approach, a structured framework engaging diverse stakeholders to model agroforestry futures. The study was conducted in Gedeo zone, and Northwestern Tigray, two distinct agro-ecological settings in Ethiopia. On both study sites, community leaders, farmers, experts, planners, and researchers participated in a workshop with the aim to identify historical change timelines, current and future drivers of change, co-development of alternative scenarios, and identification of desired and undesired futures, allowing them to envision and plan for sustainable land use based on their local knowledge and preferences. Four alternative scenarios were developed for each site. Additionally, historical (2000, 2012) and current (2024) land use land cover (LULC) maps were generated from Landsat imagery using Random Forest classifier. In Gedeo, high population density, land scarcity, food insecurity, and the expansion of cash crops like Khat and sugarcane, threatening traditional coffee and enset-based agroforestry systems. In Tigray, agroforestry is promoted for land restoration, but socio-political and environmental challenges, including the Tigray war erupted in 2020, have disrupted agriculture and displaced millions, hindering recovery efforts. The study demonstrates the importance of integrating local knowledge with remote sensing for operational land-use planning. The co-developed scenarios was combined into a spatial modeling framework using Terrset Land Change Modeler to predict potential LULC changes. Insights on past, present and future agroforestry systems from the two distinct agro-ecological zones demonstrate how such tools can support decision-making processes at local and national levels, contributing to sustainable land management and climate change adaptation strategies in Ethiopia.

ID: 3.11586

Co-producing Climate Resilience in the Lesser Himalayan Regions of India: Darjeeling and Kalimpong

Parveen Kumar

Abstract/Description

This study examines the interplay between ecosystem degradation and community resilience in the Lesser Himalayan regions of Darjeeling and Kalimpong, India. It focuses on collaborative, ecosystem driven strategies to mitigate the unique challenges brought by climate and land use management practices. Using a mix of spatial analysis, climate vulnerability assessment, and insights gathered from local communities, we highlight specific vulnerabilities unique to Darjeeling and Kalimpong’s mountain ecosystem. These vulnerabilities are intensified by the area’s diverse topography, climate, and ecology. Our approach compares existing land use management practices with innovative adaptation strategies that include local traditional knowledge. The findings reveal that global climate vulnerability models often fail to capture local context, and traditional and informal practices are more effective than formal plans in sustaining ecosystems and supporting community livelihoods. We advocate for a planning framework that integrates local knowledge and addresses both immediate ecological concerns and long-term sustainable development. The finding of this study aims to support policymakers in developing effective climate change adaptation strategies and enhancing the resilience of these mountain regions to the escalating impacts of climate change.

ID: 3.11908

The Virtual Glacier Feedback Loop: Socio-ecological impacts of digital media and modes of extraction on ice and local communities in Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska.

Nicole Schaub

Abstract/Description

As glaciers have become climate change symbols, and tourism and digital media technologies expand, the online representation of glaciers increasingly feeds responses that melt the cryosphere and impact glacier communities. ‘Last Chance’ glacier tourism utilizes fossil fuel transportation, contributing to climate change and melting glaciers, while the digital profile of glaciers from virtual tourism promotes digital technology developments that feeds this tourism. From the rare-earth mineral and petrochemical extraction necessary for physical transportation and digital media devices to energy and water consumption for storing and sharing digital content, this cycle, the “virtual glacier feedback loop,” spirals on itself: the disappearing glaciers reveal new liminal spaces ripe for mineral and tourism extraction, while glacier melt cools the data centers in which the growing virtual glacier imaginary is stored. But this process is more than a positive feedback loop for ice melt, it leverages old conservation strategies grounded in consumerism and ecotourism with social impacts that leave room for only certain types of land relationships that fit the extractive model. Merging these physical and social ice feedback loops, this research asks: do virtual glaciers melt actual glaciers, and with what consequences for ice and people? The research focuses on Glacier Bay National Park in Alaska, homeland of the Huna Tlingít, as a case-study of the changing relationships between protected lands managers, Alaskan Native and local communities, tourism, digital media technologies and the geologically and biologically diverse environment, exploring the intersection of glaciers, conservation, and environmental justice using interdisciplinary and ethnographic research methods. Exposing the virtual glacier feedback loop counters the illusion that glaciers and their communities are isolated, remote problems and instead positions virtual glaciers as a key that reveals a consumer cycle intimately connected to the everyday world through the digital, carbon and water footprints of glacier tourism with important social and environmental consequences.

ID: 3.12310

New approaches to tackle challenges in inter- and transdisciplinary mountain research

Valerie Braun
Gravey, Mathieu; Haller, Andreas; Heinrich, Kati; Keiler, Margreth; Polderman, Annemarie; Ruiz Peyré, Fernando

Abstract/Description

Mountain areas are defined by their high relief energy, dynamic nature, and diverse geo-, hydro-, eco-, and anthroposystems and are significantly affected by climate change and globalisation, presenting complex research challenges from local to global scales. Since 2006, the Institute for Interdisciplinary Mountain Research (IGF), Austrian Academy of Sciences, has focused on human-environment relations and long-term monitoring in areas such as biodiversity, population and settlement, glaciers, protected areas, natural hazards, digital landscapes, and social-ecological transformations. Over the past year, IGF’s team identified the main challenges of mountain research through a series of workshops. The 3Ds – Drivers, Diversity, and Dynamics – emerged as central factors for gaining new knowledge and promoting sustainability transformations in mountain regions. New ways of research and activities, including long-term Living Labs and the integration of AI for data-based and multi- and trans-scalar analyses, are being implemented to support this research.

ID: 3.12435

Collaborative Pathways to Sustainable SES Management: Lessons from Participatory Scenario Planning in Kilimanjaro

Neema Robert Kinabo
Martin, Dominic A.; Martín-López, Berta; Peter, Sophie; Sanya, John; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin; Fischer, Markus; Manning, Peter

Abstract/Description

The global sustainability of social-ecological systems (SES) is threatened by intensifying environmental and societal pressures that jeopardize nature’s contributions to people (NCP). This necessitates identifying management actions and transformative pathways that foster more sustainable human-nature relationships. However, SES management often focuses on narrow subsets of SES and fails to integrate diverse knowledge systems. To address this, we used participatory scenario planning, engaging multiple stakeholder groups in three workshops (n=15) and semi-structured interviews (n=5) to envision the future of the Mount Kilimanjaro SES over the next 20 years. Our findings reveal that key SES elements defining the southern slopes of Kilimanjaro include water, biodiversity, land use, tourism, traditions, and culture, with population growth, traditional ecological knowledge, technology, and climate change as primary drivers of change. Stakeholders developed four future scenarios—Crowded Kilimanjaro, Urbanized Kilimanjaro, The Chagga Traditional Life, and Kilimanjaro Techno Life—each highlighting affected ecosystem types (e.g., forests, homegardens), potential winners and losers as well as changes in NCP and quality of life indicators (e.g., health, education, employment). Desirable components from each scenario were synthesized into a shared vision of desired futures. Management actions to achieve the desired futures ranged from legal and policy-related actions at the national level to environmental stewardship requiring local collective action. Stakeholders noted that implementing the proposed management actions could enhance NCP provision, improve the overall quality of life, and favor diverse stakeholder groups. Our study underscores the importance of stakeholder collaboration, inclusivity, and system-level understanding to integrate diverse and sometimes conflicting perspectives of desired futures and pathways to achieve them. By demonstrating a place-based and context-specific approach, this study offers actionable pathways to enhance the adaptive capacity of SES management under changing conditions.

ID: 3.12478

A model of mountain social-ecological systems to catalyze multi-actor collaborations towards sustainability

Hélène Cristofari
Asse, Daphnée; Chanteloup, Laine; Guisan, Antoine; Otero, Iago; Reynard, Emmanuel; Urbach, Davnah; Randin, Christophe

Abstract/Description

Addressing sustainability challenges in mountain regions where human activities (e.g. agriculture, forestry, tourism) strongly overlap requires multi-actor collaboration and interdisciplinary methods. Such collaborative processes need to account for (i) the existence of diverse representations of mountain social-ecological systems amongst actors and (ii) the fact that sustainability challenges have both ecological and social causes and consequences.

The work we present aimed at supporting mountain science and sustainable development by developing a conceptual model of mountain social-ecological systems to be used as a basis for dialogue within and outside academia. This model is designed as a boundary object, i.e. a representation that both sums up commonalities and supports the expression of different perspectives. It is developed based on (i) available scientific knowledge on mountain social-ecological systems, across natural and social sciences, (ii) existing conceptual frameworks describing socio-ecological systems, and (iii) interviews based on photographs and paintings, with professionals from the sectors of tourism, agriculture, energy, and forestry, in a Swiss alpine region. The interviews were analysed qualitatively to explore the diversity of representations amongst actors.

We present the diversity of perceptions and representations of mountains amongst actors, showing differences in what elements people focus on, in their affective responses, and in their conceptual representations of mountain social-ecological systems. The model synthesizes these emotional and cognitive constructs, together with the existing scientific literature, into a Natural Mountain System and a Human Mountain System of equal weight, interacting through direct and indirect drivers of change. We detail the components and processes at play within each of the subsystems. An important originality of the model lies in its inclusion of a Personal Stance describing an individual actor’s relationship to the Natural Mountain System, along five dimensions (responsibility / accountability, legitimacy, acceptance, awe / affiliation, and perceived self-efficacy). We illustrate how different Personal Stances in a mountain social-ecological systems lead to different visions of what constitutes a desirable future for mountain regions.

ID: 3.12614

Gender Equality in Science – a cornerstone for sustainable mountain futures in Central Asia

Sabrina Muzafari
Volery, Anouk; Kim, Dilara; Barandun, Martina

Abstract/Description

Central Asia faces a growing number of climate-related risks and hazards that disproportionately affect people based on gender. The development of mitigation and adaptation measures relies on the acquisition of extensive environmental data for evidence-based decision-making. STEM researchers and activists are needed to fill critical data and information gaps. The inclusion of women in STEM fields reinforces the quality of research and the diversity of perspectives. It also reduces gender inequalities by providing women with well-paid positions in society. However, the involvement of women in STEM has declined in Central Asia since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, and women must increasingly navigate contradicting discourses regarding their role in society. Measures are needed to reverse this trend, to promote women’s involvement in science, climate mitigation and resilience efforts, as well as to actively engage them in discussions on building sustainable mountain futures.

Since 2019, “Adventure of Science: Women and Glaciers in Central Asia” has been addressing these issues through annual tuition-free educational glaciological expeditions for women (18-25 y.o.) from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Kyrgyzstan. The expedition is led by a women-only team of instructor and mountain guide to offer a space free of stereotypical and traditional gender roles, still at play in regions of Central Asia. The annual 10-day expeditions foster women’s interest in environmental and outdoors fields and strengthen confidence in their physical and intellectual abilities. By involving participants from each Central Asian country, the project promotes the exchange of knowledge and experience across borders and builds up a transnational network of women researchers and activists.

With over 50 alumni the Adventure of Science continues to contribute towards a more sustainable future of this mountain region by stimulating local communities and fostering gender-balanced regional development.

ID: 3.13123

Uncertain futures, resilient pathways: exploratory modeling for adaptive water and risk management in mountain regions

Randy Muñoz
Muccione, Veruska; A. Vaghefi, Saeid; Fiona, Federer; Huggel, Christian

Abstract/Description

Mountain regions face growing adaptation challenges due to deep uncertainties associated with climate change and socioeconomic transformations. Conventional adaptation planning often relies on deterministic approaches that assume a most probable future. However, such methods struggle to capture the complexity of dynamic mountain-social-ecological systems, where future conditions are deeply uncertain and adaptation measures must be systematically reassessed. This study presents the synthesis of three case studies showing how Exploratory Modeling and Analysis (EMA) can enhance adaptation planning by identifying robust measures, iteratively adjusting strategies, and systematically detecting adaptation limits.
The first case study, applies EMA to assess water management strategies under deep uncertainty. By simulating 12,000 future hydrological scenarios, it identifies operational ranges for interventions that ensure water security while avoiding maladaptation risks. The second case study explores flood risk reduction, where EMA is used to evaluate a combination of infrastructure and nature-based solutions across thousands of climate and policy scenarios. The results reveal policy trade-offs and the effectiveness of hybrid approaches in reducing flood risk under uncertain climate trajectories. The third case study applies EMA to systematically identify constraints that may evolve into limits to adaptation. By simulating a wide range of climate and socioeconomic scenarios, the study evaluates conditions under which adaptation measures become ineffective, providing a structured approach to assessing soft and hard limits in mountain regions.
Together, these case studies illustrate how EMA can support systematic stress-testing of adaptation measures, allowing decision-makers to explore a broad range of plausible futures rather than optimizing for a single scenario. EMA enhances the ability to iteratively revise strategies as new information emerges and enables the identification of adaptation thresholds, bridging the gap between exploratory climate risk analysis and decision-making. By integrating EMA into adaptation planning, mountain regions can better anticipate emerging constraints, ensure the long-term effectiveness of adaptation efforts, and promote resilience in the face of accelerating environmental and societal change.

ID: 3.13134

Reimagining historical and repeat photographs for Indigenous land use planning

Claire Wright
Snow, Bill; Higgs, Eric

Abstract/Description

Over the last four years, members of the Iyarhe (Stoney) Nakoda Nation and the Mountain Legacy Project have collaborated on repurposing a colonial photographic archive to support Indigenous resurgence. Through archival research, a systematic collection of high-resolution historical (1861 to 1958) images has been used to reinforce Stoney ties to the lands around present-day Banff National Park, Alberta, Canada. Combined with repeat photographs showing the landscape as it is today, the images provide a powerful testimony of change and urge us to look to a future of Indigenous-led land management. In this presentation we will report on several applications for historical and repeat photographs including: youth and Elder engagement; place naming; and landscape change analysis using custom software tools developed at the University of Victoria.

ID: 3.14030

A horizon scan of adaptation risks and opportunities in the Yellowstone to Yukon region

Graham McDowell

Abstract/Description

Human adaptation to climate change is increasingly well documented and understood in mountain areas globally. This has led to important insights in terms of who is (or is not) adaptable, why, and with what implications, all of which is improving efforts to secure human well-being in a changing climate. However, there is emerging concern that some human responses might have unintended consequences that shift the burden of climate change to other groups/systems, places, or times. This presentation discusses results from a horizon scan of all adaptation efforts in North America’s 1.3 million km2 Yellowstone to Yukon region, one of the planet’s most intact large mountain systems. Drawing on these data, it examines the extent and characteristics of human adaptations that might pose a threat to the region’s ecological integrity (e.g. building dams, cutting fire breaks), as well as those adaptations that effectively balance human well-being with the responsible stewardship of mountain environments. The work aims to support scholarly and applied efforts to better align the needs of people and nature in a changing climate.

ID: 3.16030

Blending knowledge : promoting the future of Andean proglacial socio-ecosystems

Anais Zimmer
Root Bernstein, Meredith; Recharte, Jorge; Racoviteanu, Adina; Rabatel, Antoine; Palomo, Ignacio; Meneses, Rosa Isela; Guerrero, Matias; Condom, Thomas; Charles-Dominique, Tristan; Anthelme, Fabien

Abstract/Description

The Andes have been experiencing glacier retreat at an unprecedented pace in the last decades, leading to the rapid expansion of deglaciated areas. These newly exposed landscapes, or « novel » socio-ecological systems present both opportunities and challenges for local communities and biodiversity. They underscore the urgency for integrating local/ancestral knowledge —potentially relevant to recent environmental transformations— with scientifically-validated approaches. However, geographical, ecological, and socio-cultural barriers must be adressed to enable effective knowledge sharing across different sites in the Andes. Nature-based Solutions (NbS), rooted in ancestral knowledge, offer promising strategies for developing sustainable uses of proglacial landscapes, tailored to local socio-ecosystems. Such solutions can provide both social and ecological benefits while helping to mitigate risks across the region. In this paper, we (1) review existing NbS in high-Andean environments, (2) analyze the biophysical and socio-cultural barriers to the spatial and temporal transferability of proglacial NbS, and (3) highlight knowledge hibridization as a key mechanism for enhancing the accessibility and transferability of proglacial NbS.

ID: 3.10012

Better Banff: Housing crises, Indigenous Rights, and maintaining wildlife connectivity in the Bow Valley, Canada

Adam Linnard

Abstract/Description

Established in 1885, Banff National Park in Alberta, Canada is one of the world’s oldest and most famous mountain destinations and protected areas. It lies in the geographic center of the Yellowstone to Yukon region, the most intact large mountain ecosystem on the planet. Despite this large-landscape success, the Bow River Valley that runs through the heart of Banff National Park and beyond has lost 85% of its historical connectivity for grizzly bears and wolves, has dramatically shrunk and altered wildlife movement paths, and has been described in the academic literature as the most developed landscape on Earth still home to grizzly bears for over 20 years. Banff National Park today faces considerable visitation and development pressures internally and from neighbouring jurisdictions outside of the national park management system, set within a social context that includes a severe regional housing crisis, dependence on a vulnerable migrant labour force, and both local and national movements for truth and reconciliation with Indigenous Peoples. This presentation offers a non-profit practitioner’s perspective on these complex pressures impacting Banff National Park with particular focus on real estate and resort development in Canmore, a town within the Bow River Valley immediately east of the park boundary. This presentation will highlight some of the tensions and contradictions between large-landscape conservation and local social, political, legal and economic conditions to argue the importance of transdisciplinary and community collaboration for achieving mountain conservation goals.

FS 3.126: Which role of spatial-led research, planning and design in driving Alpine transitions?

FS 3.128: Upstream-downstream connectivity and impacts of climate change in the world’s water towers

FS 3.127

Mountain futures

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