Assigned Session: FS 3.206: The Future of Mountain Forests
Unravelling Water Yield Patterns in Lower Shivaliks of Uttarakhand: Scenario-based Analysis of Climate and Land Use Dynamics
Abstract ID: 3.12866 | Accepted as Talk | Talk | TBA | TBA
Diksha Verma (1)
Vishavjit Kumar (2)
(2) Indian Council of Forestry Research and Educatiom, Dehradun, Uttarakhand, India
The Himalayan Forest ecosystem plays a crucial role in regulating water resources by serving as natural reservoir and is a reliable source of freshwater for the mountainous and downstream communities. The lower Shivalik range of Himalayas are best suited for the human development with optimum climatic conditions, consequently, threatened by climatic variability and anthropogenic pressures. The dynamics of land use shifts coupled with climatic variability has a significant contribution in oscillating the hydrological flux of the area. However, research on water ecosystem services is limited in capturing the temporal continuum, which is essential to observe water yield distribution pattern. The present study evaluates the spatio-temporal variation in water yield through the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) Annual Water Yield Model across multiple temporal scale (1995, 2005, 2015, and 2022), and identify the primary influencing factors driving the changes by employing geographical detector modelling. The land use change detection reveals a notable shift from dense forests to built-up (3.41%) and agricultural land (4.62%), contributing to altered hydrological patterns. The upward trend in water yield from 3180.41 m³/ha in 1995 to 6808.07 m³/ha in 2022, underscores the influence of land use dynamics and climatic variability on hydrological processes. Precipitation (q= 0.43) and population density (q= 0.25) were the dominant factor for influencing water yield, however, interaction between land use and precipitation was also significantly positively influencing water yield. The results were further substantiated by scenario-based analysis using four scenarios: SI (Baseline 1995), SII (1995 climate and 2022 land use), SIII (2022 climate and 1995 land use), and SIV (Actual conditions of 2022), which revealed that water retention was severely constrained by alterations to the various climate and land use variables. Areas with high rainfall and intact forest cover exhibited stable and consistent water yield, highlighting the significance of preserving natural recharge zones. The findings emphasize on the critical role of forest conservation and sustainable land use planning in maintaining hydrological balance and securing water resources in Himalayas.
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