Abstract ID: 3.13123 | Accepted as Talk | Talk | TBA | TBA

Mountain regions face growing adaptation challenges due to deep uncertainties associated with climate change and socioeconomic transformations. Conventional adaptation planning often relies on deterministic approaches that assume a most probable future. However, such methods struggle to capture the complexity of dynamic mountain-social-ecological systems, where future conditions are deeply uncertain and adaptation measures must be systematically reassessed. This study presents the synthesis of three case studies showing how Exploratory Modeling and Analysis (EMA) can enhance adaptation planning by identifying robust measures, iteratively adjusting strategies, and systematically detecting adaptation limits.
The first case study, applies EMA to assess water management strategies under deep uncertainty. By simulating 12,000 future hydrological scenarios, it identifies operational ranges for interventions that ensure water security while avoiding maladaptation risks. The second case study explores flood risk reduction, where EMA is used to evaluate a combination of infrastructure and nature-based solutions across thousands of climate and policy scenarios. The results reveal policy trade-offs and the effectiveness of hybrid approaches in reducing flood risk under uncertain climate trajectories. The third case study applies EMA to systematically identify constraints that may evolve into limits to adaptation. By simulating a wide range of climate and socioeconomic scenarios, the study evaluates conditions under which adaptation measures become ineffective, providing a structured approach to assessing soft and hard limits in mountain regions.
Together, these case studies illustrate how EMA can support systematic stress-testing of adaptation measures, allowing decision-makers to explore a broad range of plausible futures rather than optimizing for a single scenario. EMA enhances the ability to iteratively revise strategies as new information emerges and enables the identification of adaptation thresholds, bridging the gap between exploratory climate risk analysis and decision-making. By integrating EMA into adaptation planning, mountain regions can better anticipate emerging constraints, ensure the long-term effectiveness of adaptation efforts, and promote resilience in the face of accelerating environmental and societal change.