The impact of past droughts in the Central Apennines

Abstract ID: 3.12954 | Accepted as Talk | Requested as: Talk | TBA | TBA

Maximiliano Jose Rodriguez Moreno (1)
Alvaro, Ayala (2); Michael, McCarthy (2); Catriona, Fyffe (1); Thomas, Shaw (1); Achille, Jouberton (1); Katrina, Gelwick (3); Emmy, Stigner (3); Walter, Immerzeel (3); Emanuele, Romano (4); Franziska, Zilker (2); Simone, Fatichi (5); Francesca, Pellicciotti (1)

(1) Institute of Science and Technology (ISTA), Am campus 1, 3400 Klosterneuburg, Austria
(2) Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research, Zürcherstrasse 111, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
(3) Utrecht University, Princetonlaan 8a, 3584 CB Utrecht, Netherlands
(4) National Research Council of Italy, Strada Provinciale 35d, Montelibretti, Italy
(5) National University of Singapore, Engineering Drive 2, 117576 Singapore, Singapore

Categories: Cryo- & Hydrosphere, Water Resources
Keywords: Hydrological modelling

Categories: Cryo- & Hydrosphere, Water Resources
Keywords: Hydrological modelling

Abstract

Europe is facing changes in temperature and precipitation patterns due to climate change. Periods of low precipitation and heatwaves can reduce the accumulation of snow in the Apennine range, which provides water resources to millions of people. Warmer and drier conditions can increase water scarcity, disrupt water supplies, reduce crop yields, and decrease hydropower generation through increased evapotranspiration and reductions in streamflow and groundwater recharge. In this study, we investigate the main effects of droughts on the hydrosphere, biosphere and pedosphere of the Apennine range using the ecohydrological model Tethys-Chloris from 2000 to 2010. Tethys-Chloris is a distributed physically based model that can simulate water and energy budgets at the land surface using detailed representations of eco-hydrological processes. The model is forced with station and reanalysis data, and validated against streamflow measurements as well as remote sensing products including snow cover area and the leaf area index. We identify changes produced by drought conditions on snow, the seasonality and magnitude of runoff, and the vegetation response. We analyze distributed high-resolution maps of infiltration, soil moisture, lateral water fluxes, surface temperature, and net primary productivity to obtain a picture of the entire mountain system response and its drivers, filling the gap between point measurements and satellite-based products. The implementation of the ecohydrological model Tethys-Chloris in the Apennines provides a benchmark understanding to investigate the future effects of a potential multi-year ‘megadrought’ on vegetation, snow cover and streamflow. Our results have relevance for local communities, policymakers, and scientists to devise strategies to mitigate climate change impacts on the water towers of central Italy.

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