Abstract ID: 3.11848 | Accepted as Talk | Talk/Oral | TBA | TBA

The Alpine ibex (Capra ibex) is a mountain ungulate endemic to the European Alps. Nearly extinct at the beginning of the 19th century, the species was successfully reintroduced across most of its original range thanks to active conservation efforts. All individuals currently present in the Alps are genetically descendent from the only remnant population in the Gran Paradiso area (nowadays Gran Paradiso National Park, GPNP) in the North-Western Italian Alps, where the species has been monitored since 1957. Integrated Population Models (IPM) based on long-term abundance data from the GPNP population have revealed that the strong fluctuations observed in the last decades were driven by an initial increase of adult survival followed by a decrease in kid survival, leading to reduced recruitment. The rise in adult survival was likely favored by milder winters, characterized by reduced snowfall and earlier vegetation growth. Similar patterns emerged from the analysis of long-term data on seasonal body mass changes, which showed a significant increase in autumn body mass of adults over the past 25 years. However, despite the increased adult survival, the combination of milder winters, earlier vegetation growth, and an ageing population, contributed to lower kid survival rates, leading to a general population decline. The long-term monitoring efforts made possible by a stable institution like a national park have been crucial in understanding how environmental changes affect the life history and population dynamic of a large mountain ungulate. At the same time, these findings highlight the complexity of the response of alpine species to global environmental changes.