Abstract ID: 3.13769 | Accepted as Poster | Talk | TBA | TBA

This study evaluates the impacts of 21st century climate change on glacier mass and area in the Jhelum basin, a major tributary of the Indus basin, using advanced climate modelling and glacier dynamics assessments. Employing bias-corrected projections from thirteen CMIP6 climate models under the most plausible Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) climate change scenarios, the research integrates temperature-index mass balance modelling and volume-area scaling to predict changes in glacier extent and mass by the end of 21st century. Key findings reveal a projected temperature increase ranging of 1.9°C to 3.8°C, with precipitation rising by 2.5% to 14% by the end of the century. This climate change is predicted to result in a significant mass loss, with annual mass balances declining to -6.8 ± 1.9 m w.e. a⁻¹ under SSP585, leading to a significant 55.3 ± 16.1% reduction in glacier area by the 2080s. Under SSP245, glacier coverage is expected to decrease by 34.7 ± 12.1%, underscoring the sensitivity of the region’s cryosphere to climate change. Notably, glacier mass loss is expected to be five times greater by 2100 under the SSP585 scenario compared to the baseline period (1980–2017). Calibration of simulated mass balance estimates was conducted against direct observations for three key glaciers in the study area; Kolahoi (2014–2019), Hoksar (2013–2018) and Nehnar (1975–1984). The study emphasizes the severe implications of significant mass loss and glacier recession under climate change scenarios by the end of the 21st century, particularly for water availability in sectors reliant on meltwater during critical seasons. These findings highlight serious implications for water, food, and energy security, both regionally and downstream. The results emphasize the urgent need to integrate these insights into regional water resource management and climate change adaptation strategies for glacier-fed water systems in the Himalayan region.