Abstract ID: 3.10014 | Accepted as Talk | Talk | TBA | TBA

Over the past half century, warming-induced climate change has led to significant permafrost degradation on the Great Caucasus (Georgia) Range. Recently, accelerated glacier melting in Georgia has led to an increase in the frequency of landslides, avalanches and mudflows (powerful ice avalanches of 2007, 2014, and 2016 on the Devdoraki glacier and a strong landslide on August 3, 2023 on the Buba and Tbilisa glaciers caused serious damage to the environment and the population). Unfortunately, the fluctuations of Georgian glaciers have not been studied using mathematical modeling methods so far.  Since the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) is able to study almost all glaciers at regional and global scales (without prohibitive computational costs), and it is the cheapest, most reliable and valuable tool for scientifically based forecasting or hindcasting of glacier evolution, it is therefore used in this study to investigate glaciers melting in the Caucasus (Georgia). The main focus of this study is on seasonal, interannual and long-term OGGM projections of the Devdoraki, Gergeti, Buba and Tbilisa glaciers amid of regional climate change conditions. For this purpose, a more targeted analysis of the glacier contour, flow line, geometric width, mass balance, thickness, surface and volumetric fluctuations is carried out to understand current and possible future fluctuations of the  glaciers  located in the central (Buba and Tbilisa glaciers) and eastern (Devdoraki  and Gergeti glaciers) parts of the Greater Caucasus Range.