Modelling the impact of mining activities on the dynamics and evolution of a Kyrgyz glacier
Abstract ID: 3.8433 | Accepted as Talk | Talk/Oral | TBA | TBA
Lander Van Tricht (0)
Zekollari, Harry (3), Huss, Matthias (1,2,4), Rybak, Oleg (5,6), Satylkanov, Rysbek (7,8), Farinotti, Daniel (1,2)
Lander Van Tricht (1,2,3)
Zekollari, Harry (3), Huss, Matthias (1,2,4), Rybak, Oleg (5,6), Satylkanov, Rysbek (7,8), Farinotti, Daniel (1,2)
1,2,3
(1) Laboratory of Hydraulics, Hydrology and Glaciology (VAW), ETH Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland
(2) Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL), Sion, Switzerland
(3) Department of Water and Climate, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium
(4) Department of Geosciences, University of Fribourg, Fribourg, Switzerland
(5) Water Problems Institute of RAS, Moscow, Russia
(6) Earth System Science and Departement Geografie, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium
(7) Institute of Water Problems and Hydropower, NAS KR, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan
(8) Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan
(2) Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL), Sion, Switzerland
(3) Department of Water and Climate, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium
(4) Department of Geosciences, University of Fribourg, Fribourg, Switzerland
(5) Water Problems Institute of RAS, Moscow, Russia
(6) Earth System Science and Departement Geografie, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium
(7) Institute of Water Problems and Hydropower, NAS KR, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan
(8) Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan
Glaciers worldwide are retreating due to climate change. However, local human activities can also influence their dynamics. Here, we examine the impact of gold mining operations at the Kumtor Gold Mine on Davydov Glacier in the Central Tien Shan, Kyrgyzstan, using a 3D thermodynamic ice flow model. By analysing satellite observations and model simulations, we find that mining activities over the past two decades have shortened the glacier by approximately 2 km and reduced its volume by 160 million m³ compared to a scenario driven solely by climate forcing. If mining ceases, the glacier could temporarily advance by up to 100 m. However, by 2060, our projections show it will retreat beyond the mining site, with no significant differences between mining and no-mining scenarios. By 2100, projected volume losses range from 40% to 99%, depending on climate conditions. Our findings highlight the significant role of human activities in shaping glacier geometry, stability, and long-term evolution, underscoring the impacts of landscape modifications on glacier dynamics.
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