Abstract ID: 3.11236 | Accepted as Talk | Talk/Oral | TBA | TBA

Most glaciers in Austria are expected to disappear in the coming decades, though the exact timing varies across models and datasets. Regional glacier inventories show that between 2006 and 2017, the Ötztal and Stubai mountain ranges (Tyrol, Austria) lost about 19% of their glacier area and 23% of their glacier volume. During this period, five very small glaciers disappeared completely and are no longer included in the most recent inventory. Using a new calibration method based on high-resolution regional inventory data, projections from the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) suggest that only 2.7% of the region’s 2017 glacier volume will remain by 2100 if global warming is limited to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. In a 2°C scenario, this level of ice loss would occur about 30 years earlier, with nearly complete deglaciation by 2100 (only 0.4% of 2017 volume remaining). Current warming trends (2.7°C) indicate that almost all ice will be lost before 2075. Even in the optimistic 1.5°C scenario, over 100 glaciers, about one-third of those in the study region, are likely to disappear by 2030. In our presentation, we will share key findings from our assessment of glacier evolution in the Ötztal and Stubai mountains until 2100 (preprint DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2024-3146).