Abstract ID: 3.11525 | Accepted as Poster | Poster | TBA | TBA

The Andes, historically resistant to non-native plant invasions, are now facing increasing expansion of these species due to climate change and human activity. Since most of Chile’s protected areas are located in this region, this trend poses a serious threat to biodiversity and ecosystem services. This study evaluates whether incorporating microclimatic variables, such as near-surface temperature, and anthropogenic factors improves the predictive performance of species distribution models for invasive plants in mountain ecosystems. It also examines whether the influence of these variables differs based on plant growth habit and identifies the protected areas most at risk of invasion in the Andes. To achieve this, ensemble modeling was applied to assess the distribution of the five most abundant non-native plants in the Andean lowlands. Presence data were obtained from permanent plots in the MIREN monitoring network, spanning from 2007 to 2022. The models integrated near-soil climate data, macroclimatic variables, and the human footprint index, testing different combinations of these factors to determine the best-performing models. The results indicate that incorporating microclimatic and anthropogenic variables significantly enhances model accuracy, particularly for shrubs and herbs, with predictive power increasing by 27.5% and 24.7%, respectively. The species most likely to expand to higher elevations include Rubus ulmifolius, Ulex europaeus, and Pinus contorta, especially in areas with high human activity, such as near roads. Among Chile’s protected areas, Río Cipreses, Malalcahuello, Coyhaique, and Magallanes show the highest risk of invasion due to their proximity to urban centers. These findings highlight the importance of integrating fine-scale climate and human impact data into species distribution models to improve predictions in topographically complex regions such as the Andes. By identifying areas at high risk of invasion, this approach provides valuable insights for conservation planning, helping to prioritize management strategies and mitigate the spread of non-native species. Addressing these threats is essential for maintaining the ecological integrity of Andean ecosystems and ensuring the long-term protection of native biodiversity. EFL and AP funded by Fondecyt grants 1180205 and 1231616, ANID ACT210038 and ANID/BASAL FB210006.