Abstract ID: 3.9721 | Accepted as Talk | Talk | TBA | TBA

European forests are increasingly vulnerable to climate change, facing challenges such as extreme weather events, growth reduction, and shifts in species composition. Developing adaptive forest management strategies is essential to enhance forest resilience and maintain ecosystem services. This study is part of the SOSFOR (Sustainable Operating Spaces for European Forests) project, which aims to integrate spatially explicit modelling and participatory approaches to delineate sustainable operating spaces for European forests under future climate and socio-economic scenarios. The project includes five case studies across Europe (Italy, Spain, Germany, Norway and Romania), of which this is the first, combining forest ecosystem modelling with social and economic assessments, offering decision-support tools (DSS) for adaptive and climate-smart forestry. The objective of this study is to (i) evaluate the effects of forest management and climate scenarios on forest dynamics, ecosystem services, and socio-economic sustainability, and (ii) develop impact indicators aligned with sustainability frameworks, integrating environmental, social, and economic dimensions to support adaptive forest management strategies in different European landscapes. In this study we focus on Val Camonica, a glacial valley in the central Italian Alps, largely covered by forests. We employ the iLand forest landscape model, widely applied for its capacity to capture ecological interactions at landscape scales working on spatial explicit data. Model parameterization and initialization rely on detailed forest inventory data, including species composition, stand age, productivity, and structural complexity. The DPSIR framework is used to structure sustainability indicators, linking environmental changes to socio-economic outcomes. Simulations highlight the trade-offs between different management approaches in terms of carbon sequestration, biodiversity conservation, timber production, and socio-economic outcomes. By integrating spatially explicit outputs with socio-economic scenario analysis, we identify thresholds that define sustainable operating spaces. This study represents the first case study within the SOSFOR project, providing a foundation for comparative assessments across different European forested regions. The findings will contribute to the development of transnational strategies for climate-smart forestry, fostering resilience in the face of climate change.