Droughts are a major hazard in the Central Andean Altiplano, leading to crop failure, a reduction in critical hydropower production capacity and pressure on the availability of drinking water. Through the 21st Century, droughts in the Andes are expected to increase in frequency and intensity as a result of rising temperatures and associated glacier retreat, along with increasing seasonality in precipitation. However, understanding of how drought evolves in the Central Andean Altiplano is limited by low data resolution and a lack of local observations.
We analyse high-resolution temperature and precipitation data from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for the period 1980-2018. Using the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), and the Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), we characterise historic meteorological drought in the Vilcanota-Urubamba Basin (Southern Peruvian Andes). Using output from the hydrological model JULES, and in-situ observations of river levels, we determine how meteorological drought propagates to hydrological drought.
By understanding the drivers of drought in the Vilcanota-Urubamba Basin, and how the hydro-climatic system propagates from meteorological to hydrological drought, it is possible to work towards prediction of drought impacts on agriculture and hydropower production. In turn, this can enable stakeholders, including small-holder farmers, local utility companies and parametric insurers, to implement measures to effectively reduce the impact of drought on vulnerable communities in Peru.