Abstract ID: 3.13549 | Accepted as Poster | Poster | TBA | TBA

Assessing the effects of climate change requires an understanding of the hydroclimatic variability in mountain ecosystems. This research offers a 586-year tree-ring width (TRW) history of Picea smithiana from the Chara and Naltar valleys in Gilgit-Baltistan, northern Pakistan. Tree growth has a robust positive link with summer precipitation and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) (p < 0.01), but a negative correlation is seen with summer temperature, underscoring moisture availability as the principal limiting factor. A reconstruction of summer PDSI (1431–2016 CE) accounts for 35.1% of the observed variation in the calibration period (1956–2016). Significant drought occurrences, such as the Mughal Mega Drought (1630–1670 CE) and recurrent decadal droughts throughout the 18th and 19th centuries, are recognized. Wavelet power spectrum study indicates hydroclimatic variability at inter-annual (2–8 years) and multi-decadal (64–128 years) scales, with recent decades exhibiting heightened inter-annual variations, presumably associated with human climate change. Major climatic factors, including sea surface temperature anomalies in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, profoundly affect regional moisture patterns. The results underscore the vulnerability of high-altitude forests to climate change, offering essential insights for sustainable forest management and adaptation methods in the Himalayas