Abstract ID: 3.8140 | Accepted as Talk | Talk | TBA | TBA

Predicting future climate changes in mountainous regions poses substantial challenges due to the intricate nature of local weather and climate dynamics. Moreover, mountains undergo changes that are specific to each region, calling for a localized approach to the analysis of the underlying phenomena. In recent decades, there has been considerable focus on elevation-dependent warming and its future projections, but other variables have received less attention. A thorough understanding of the drivers and the relationships among different patterns requires detailed analyses of models’ output alongside key atmospheric and surface variables.
This study focuses on the European Alpine Region, leveraging the extensive EURO-CORDEX ensemble to examine elevation-dependent changes detectable in 19 climate variables. Our findings highlight pronounced elevation-dependent patterns during winter and spring for minimum temperature, diurnal temperature range, and specific humidity. Strong correlations are evident between surface temperature and other variables such as diurnal temperature range, minimum temperature, specific humidity, and longwave downward radiation. Moreover, variables significantly influenced by model parameterization, such as heat fluxes and snow cover fraction, show minimal coherence within the ensemble. These findings underline the critical importance of using an ensemble-based approach when crafting climate scenarios to inform future adaptation strategies.