Abstract ID: 3.10545 | Accepted as Talk | Talk/Oral | TBA | TBA

The southern slope of the Himalayas is increasingly vulnerable to two critical climate extremes: intense summer monsoon rainfall and prolonged winter droughts. These extremes challenge water resource management and amplify forest fire risks. All three versions of Climate models (CMIP3 , CMIP5, and CMIP6) project that these conditions will intensify under a warming climate. Extreme summer monsoon rainfall exacerbates floods and landslides, while winter droughts, marked by minimal precipitation, heighten forest fire risks. In Nepal, forest fires have grown more extensive and prolonged, with climate models indicating further escalation due to drier winters. Historical data reveal a decline in winter precipitation, while pre- and post-monsoon rainfall is expected to increase. Forest fire smoke, carrying black carbon particles, can reach the Himalayas, accelerating snow and glacier melt and threatening Asia’s water resources. Nepal experienced unprecedented forest fire activity during recent spring seasons, including 2021 and 2024, with occurrences ten times higher than the long-term average. These surges followed prolonged droughts beginning in November, post-monsoon. Our analysis, combining observational data, reanalysis, and climate models, highlights that climate variability and climate change-induced droughts are key drivers of these events. Projections indicate that drought conditions conducive to forest fires will become more frequent throughout the 21st century. To address these challenges, we propose an integrated framework for forest fire management, including early warning systems, community-based fire prevention programs, and climate-resilient land management strategies. These measures are essential for mitigating the compounded impacts of climate change on Nepal’s forests and water resources, safeguarding public health, and reducing vulnerability to future climate extremes.