Abstract ID: 3.13788 | Accepted as Talk | Talk | TBA | TBA

Forest fires are increasing in intensity and frequency, posing a significant threat to ecosystems, biodiversity, and human livelihoods. Climate change is widely studied as a primary driver of forest fires; however, factors beyond climate change, such as human activities and land-use changes, have received comparatively less attention. This study aims to bridge this gap by assessing the spatiotemporal trends of forest fires and examining non-climatic factors over the Himalayan Ganga Basin (HGB). Using the Getis-Ord Gi* and Moran’s I spatial statistical methods, forest fire hotspots were analyzed from 2012 to 2024 to identify spatiotemporal patterns. The results reveal a consistent cyclical pattern of forest fire incidents, alternating yearly increases and decreases, except for 2020. The highest fire incidents occurred in 2016 (9,162), followed by a decline in 2017 (1,117). The basin was classified into forest fire risk zones, with 24.8% under very low risk, 42.25% under low risk, 14.10% under moderate risk, 11.91% under high risk, and 6.85% under very high risk. The moderate, high, and very high-risk zones are concentrated in the Pauri Garhwal, Tehri Garhwal, Uttarkashi, and Chamoli districts. This study also investigated the role of rural out-migration. The findings indicate that Pauri Garhwal, Tehri Garhwal, and Uttarkashi are the districts with the highest rates of rural out-migration. As local communities migrate to urban centers in search of better opportunities, traditional land management practices such as controlled burning and forest maintenance are increasingly abandoned. This has led to the accumulation of dry biomass, creating a fuel-rich environment that exacerbates the intensity and frequency of forest fires in the region. The reduction in human intervention has disrupted traditional ecological practices, making forests more vulnerable to uncontrolled fires.