Abstract ID: 3.11643 | Accepted as Talk | Talk/Oral | TBA | TBA

Tropical glaciers are essential for water security and energy generation in the Vilcanota Mountain Range, the second-largest glaciated range in Peru. This study aims to determine the future fluctuations in the climatic equilibrium line altitude (CELA) in five sectors of the Vilcanota Mountain Range: Ausangate, Quelccaya, Quisoquipina, Japu Punta, and Osjollo Anante (Chumpe), identified as glacier zones particularly sensitive to climate change. Climate data from WorldClim (WC) and CHELSA (CH) were validated for the reference period, and their spatial resolution was enhanced through statistical downscaling using the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) method for both the reference period and future scenarios. Using the high-resolution climate data obtained, the CELA was estimated considering mean air temperature and mean annual precipitation as the main variables. When compared with observed data, the WC climate data showed a higher correlation than CH, as well as a lower root mean square error (RMSE) and percentage bias (PBIAS) compared to CH climate data. Future scenarios were projected for 2030, 2050, and 2090 using seven global climate models from CMIP6 under different socioeconomic pathways (ssp1-2.6, ssp3-7.0, and ssp5-8.5). The results indicate that by the mid-21st century, the CELA would surpass the summit of the Quelccaya and Quisoquipina glaciers, highlighting the high vulnerability of these resources to climate change and its potential impacts on water availability and associated ecosystems.