Ecology, floristic-vegetational features and future perspectives of spruce forests affected by Ips typographus: insights from the Southern Alps
Assigned Session: FS 3.191: Forest recovery after disturbance: Challenges and opportunities for the management of mountain forests
Abstract ID: 3.11023 | Accepted as Talk | Requested as: Talk | TBA | TBA
Riccardo Panza (1)
Luca, Giupponi (1, 2); Beatrice, Bisaglia (1); Davide, Pedrali (1); Alex, Alberto (1); Stefano, Sala (1); Annamaria, Giorgi (1, 2)
(1) University of Milan, Via Morino 8, 25048 Edolo (BS), Italy, 25048 Edolo, IT
(2) Department of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences – Production, Landscape and Agroenergy, University of Milan, Via Celoria 2, 20133 Milan, Italy
Abstract
The Horizon-funded MountResilience project supports mountain areas to improve their adaptation to climate change, addressing regional needs with a multilevel engagement and co-creation process. As part of this initiative, we focused on a pressing issue for mountain forest management: the increasing impact of climate-driven natural disturbances. In recent years, extensive outbreaks of the bark beetle (Ips typographus) have severely impacted spruce (Picea abies) forests in the Southern Alps, yet their ecological consequences remain insufficiently explored. This study investigates the distribution, ecological, and floristic-vegetational characteristics of forests recently affected by the bark beetle in the upper Oglio River basin (Northern Italy) and applies a MaxEnt model to predict severe insect infestations in the coming decades. Findings reveal that affected spruce forests are confined to the sub-montane and montane belts (below 1,600 m a.s.l.), with 85% of them occurring in areas receiving high annual solar radiation (>3,500 MJ m⁻²). The predictive model for bark beetle susceptibility demonstrated high accuracy (AUC = 0.91) and identified the mean temperature of the dry winter quarter as the dominant predictor (80.1% contribution), with temperatures between -2.5 and 2.5 °C being particularly conducive to the pest. By 2080, the model forecasts that over 58% of the current spruce forests in the study area will be highly susceptible (probability > 0.7) to severe bark beetle attacks. Floristic-vegetational and ecological analyses of 11 beetle-affected sites suggest that future forest communities will be more thermophilic and significantly distinct from pre-disturbance conditions, both floristically and structurally. Additionally, the dense presence of standing dead spruce trees seems to accelerate plant succession, promoting the establishment of mature forest communities in a shorter timeframe. Recent outbreaks in the Southern Alps pose a significant challenge and are widely regarded as a threat. However, they also provide an opportunity to enhance our understanding of natural disturbances, ecological processes, and biodiversity conservation. This knowledge could inform updated management strategies for Alpine forests in response to the environmental changes of this century.
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