Abstract ID: 3.13537 | Accepted as Talk | Talk | TBA | TBA

Across the Himalayan region, new tools are needed to evaluate and monitor multi-hazard risk as climate change shifts the dimensions of intersecting hazard regimes in the mountain environment. Since 2022, our team from the Stimson Center has been developing a toolkit for near-real time multi-hazard monitoring and analysis that is designed to identify high risk areas where cascading hazard chains might generate extreme flow events – such as the 2021 Melamchi Disaster in Nepal or the 2023 South Lhonak GLOF in Sikkim. The analyses, alerts, and information products we create are designed for governmental and non-governmental users, to inform both disaster risk reduction programs and anticipatory action efforts. Going forward, we hope that our multi-hazard monitoring systems can help provide early warning for potential extreme flow events. Our multimodal approach utilizes a blend of impact-based forecasting and dynamic hazard assessment techniques, remote sensing data and earth observation tools, and localized hazard monitoring activities to gain a better understanding of emergent risks. Our goal is to model potential cascading hazard scenarios and create disaster risk scores at the sub-watershed scale – helping to anticipate the risk of potential interactions between multiple hazards and landscape features under extreme flow conditions, demonstrating how, where, and under what conditions cascading disasters could occur.

This paper will reflect on lessons learned over the course of three monsoon seasons in Nepal, sharing insights from the process of multi-hazard risk assessment, conducting near-real time analysis of disaster events like the 2024 Thame GLOF, engaging with government stakeholders and local officials, and promoting localized community-engaged hazard monitoring programs. This includes discussion of our efforts to an integrated model for simulating extreme flow events in high-risk basins, empirical findings on best practices for risk communication, and reflections on the challenges of governance, interoperability, and sustainability that arise while working with government partners in Nepal. Given Stimson’s unique position as a think tank, we will also analyze the politics of knowledge production in the context of transboundary disaster risk management in the Himalayan region, and highlight the value of knowledge sharing in this rapidly evolving space.