Abstract ID: 3.11724 | Accepted as Poster | Talk/Oral | TBA | TBA

Understanding the impact of climate change on the disruption of ecological balance, especially in sub-humid environments, is a challenging task that requires continuous scientific understanding and technical efforts to effectively manage natural resources for economic development while meeting environmental needs. The Qilian Mountain Nature Reserve, situated in Northwest China, is a high-altitude mountainous region of vital ecological significance in surrounding regions and it has been significantly impacted by substantial human activities and climate change. Nevertheless, accurately quantifying the relative impacts of each driving factor presents considerable challenges and is still insufficiently understood. This study utilized a GIS-based approach and Geodetector model to quantitatively assess the interactive effects of environmental and anthropogenic factors on the Shiyang River Basin(SYRB) ecosystem. Theil-Sen’s slope in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was used as a dependent variable, while elevation, near-surface air temperature, precipitation, wind velocity, land cover change, soil salinity, road buffers, waterway buffers, and soil types were independent variables for the GeoDetector model. Results indicate that NDVI in the Qilian Mountains exhibited a greening trend during the past 30 years. Analysis of power determinant (PD) values of all driving factors ranged between 0.004 and 0.567; Land Surface Temperature (LST), Elevation, and Soil salinization had the highest contributing factors, whereas wind and land cover had a relatively low impact on desertification. Investigation of interactive PD values resulted in a higher value than a single factor. In addition, some factors enhanced each other and others had a non-linear enhancement among studied driving factors implying that a single driving factor can not define the desertification status in the SYRB. These findings highlight land management contribution, rational water allocation, and conservation measures to reverse desertification and maintain a sustainable ecosystem despite climate change impacts and water resources shortage in the SYRB. In addition, this study sheds light on the environmental footprint of desertification’s main driving factors in the SYRB. It is a cornerstone for future policy on ecological restoration, crucial for landscape planning, ecological restoration projects, and water resources allocation for socio-economic and environmental sustainability.