Abstract ID: 3.12435 | Accepted as Poster | Talk | TBA | TBA

The global sustainability of social-ecological systems (SES) is threatened by intensifying environmental and societal pressures that jeopardize nature’s contributions to people (NCP). This necessitates identifying management actions and transformative pathways that foster more sustainable human-nature relationships. However, SES management often focuses on narrow subsets of SES and fails to integrate diverse knowledge systems. To address this, we used participatory scenario planning, engaging multiple stakeholder groups in three workshops (n=15) and semi-structured interviews (n=5) to envision the future of the Mount Kilimanjaro SES over the next 20 years. Our findings reveal that key SES elements defining the southern slopes of Kilimanjaro include water, biodiversity, land use, tourism, traditions, and culture, with population growth, traditional ecological knowledge, technology, and climate change as primary drivers of change. Stakeholders developed four future scenarios—Crowded Kilimanjaro, Urbanized Kilimanjaro, The Chagga Traditional Life, and Kilimanjaro Techno Life—each highlighting affected ecosystem types (e.g., forests, homegardens), potential winners and losers as well as changes in NCP and quality of life indicators (e.g., health, education, employment). Desirable components from each scenario were synthesized into a shared vision of desired futures. Management actions to achieve the desired futures ranged from legal and policy-related actions at the national level to environmental stewardship requiring local collective action. Stakeholders noted that implementing the proposed management actions could enhance NCP provision, improve the overall quality of life, and favor diverse stakeholder groups. Our study underscores the importance of stakeholder collaboration, inclusivity, and system-level understanding to integrate diverse and sometimes conflicting perspectives of desired futures and pathways to achieve them. By demonstrating a place-based and context-specific approach, this study offers actionable pathways to enhance the adaptive capacity of SES management under changing conditions.