Abstract ID: 3.12082 | Not reviewed | Requested as: Talk | TBA | TBA

Climate change poses significant risks to ecosystems by altering environmental conditions and disrupting biotic interactions. High-altitude ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to these impacts, yet the effects on many Alpine species, such as the stoat (Mustela erminea), remain underexplored. The stoat is a specialized predator of the snow vole (Chionomys nivalis) in the Alps and is strongly associated with snow precipitation due to its winter molt. However, little is known about the potential impact of climate change on its conservation status. In this study, we investigated the effects of climate change on the stoat in the Italian Alps, focusing on potential camouflage and prey-predator mismatches. We used data from a collaborative network of institutions and open-source databases to fit Spatial Distribution Models (SDM) for both species, incorporating climate and land-use change projections through 2100 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Additionally, we included the snow vole’s potential distribution in the predictive variables for its predator. Our findings suggest an expected 36% range contraction for the stoat in the Italian Alps, primarily driven by reduced snow cover days over the coming decades. The distribution of the snow vole emerged as the second most important factor influencing habitat suitability for the stoat. While the snow vole’s range is expected to increase due to land-use changes, the stoat appears unable to track its prey’s future range, particularly at lower altitudes. Our study highlights the strong impact of climate change on the stoat, probably through camouflage mismatch and the reduced distribution overlap with its preferred prey. Despite its current classification as ‘Least Concern’ in Italy, the projected contraction in stoat distribution may qualify it for the ‘Vulnerable’ category on the IUCN Red List, according to the A3c criterion. These findings underscore the need for further studies across the entire Alpine region to assess the conservation status of the stoat under climate scenarios. Particularly, long-term monitoring programs are essential to enhance our understanding of the stoat’s ecology and inform conservation strategies in the Alps.