Cascading effects of GLOFs and permafrost thaw in the Kashmir, western Himalaya
Assigned Session: FS 3.202: Understanding Multi-Hazard Risk in Mountain Systems
Abstract ID: 3.11881 | Not reviewed | Requested as: Talk | TBA | TBA
Ulfat Majeed (1)
(1) National Institute of Technology Srinagar, Zazna, Wakura Ganderbal, 191131 Ganderbal, IN
Abstract
The melting of cryospheric reserves in high mountainous regions has heightened the risk of cryosphere-related hazards which could cause cascading hazards downstream. The western Himalaya, including Kashmir, are increasingly vulnerable to such hazards due to ongoing temperature warming and anthropogenic pressures. The study investigates cryospheric hazards in the Kulgam District of Kashmir, focusing on the relationship between glaciers, proglacial lakes, and permafrost and the cascading risks they pose to downstream communities. The analysis integrates satellite data to monitor glacier and lake changes from 1990 to 2024, assesses permafrost distribution, and identifies potential mass movement zones that could trigger outburst floods. Preliminary results show significant glacier retreat (~28%) and lake expansion (>100%), which increase the risk of GLOFs, exacerbated by the destabilizing effects of permafrost thaw. Hydrodynamic modelling suggests that two glaciers, their associated proglacial lakes, and downstream rock glaciers could pose GLOF risk downstream. Given the high vulnerability of downstream communities and infrastructure, urgent mitigation measures, including better flood defence infrastructure, early warning systems, and awareness programs, are necessary. The study highlights the critical need for integrated monitoring and disaster risk reduction strategies to address cascading cryospheric hazards in the region.
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