Abstract ID: 3.13556 | Accepted as Talk | Talk/Oral | TBA | TBA

Hydropower remains the dominant renewable energy source globally, yet its production, particularly in Run-of-River (RoR) projects, is highly sensitive to climate change (CC) due to its dependence on streamflow availability. This study assesses the impacts of CC on hydropower generation, identifying both risks and opportunities. A comprehensive framework integrating high-resolution climate data development, hydrological modeling, and hydropower assessment is utilized to evaluate future hydropower production under changing climatic conditions.
Daily gridded observational data (0.05° × 0.05° resolution) from 1981 to 2010 were developed and used to downscale and bias-correct 18 Global Climate Models (GCMs) from CMIP6 for both historical (1981–2010) and future (2015–2100) periods. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model is employed to simulate future streamflow, which is then used to estimate hydropower production at two operational and two planned RoR projects in the Madi River Basin, Nepal. Two future time periods—Near Future (NF: 2025–2054) and Far Future (FF: 2055–2084)—are analyzed under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP245 and SSP585).
Results indicate that under the baseline design discharge, winter months show a significant increase in flow, while total annual production exhibits only a slight rise. However, when revised design discharge based on future climate projections is considered, monsoon-season hydropower production is projected to increase substantially compared to the baseline, with a similar trend in non-monsoon months. These findings suggest that hydropower developers must reassess design specifications to optimize power generation and revenue.
The study highlights the necessity of integrating climate resilience into hydropower planning and operations. Findings on production variability provide valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders to enhance climate adaptation strategies. Additionally, the proposed methodology is adaptable for data-scarce regions, facilitating climate impact assessments and supporting sustainable hydropower development in developing nations.