Abstract ID: 3.13139 | Not reviewed | Requested as: Talk | TBA | TBA

The protective role of mountain forests against natural hazards is well established. However, climate change presents a significant challenge for their stability and management. Norway spruce (Picea abies) is becoming increasingly susceptible to bark beetle infestations, even at higher elevations, highlighting the need for climate-adapted tree species and increased species diversity. We assessed the long-term development of rockfall and avalanche risks in the Davos region (172 km2) through to the end of the century. We used the stochastic process-based model LandClim, incorporating CH2018 climate scenarios, to simulate future forest structures and species composition under different forest management and ungulate browsing pressure scenarios. Subsequently, dynamic simulations of rockfall and avalanche hazards were conducted for the initial forest conditions (2011) and two future projections (2060 and 2090). The resulting hazard intensity maps, categorized by return periods, were overlaid with buildings, roads, and railway lines. For these damage potential assets, we ascertained detailed information for each object category, including current population data and economic values. Risk assessments were then carried out using the EconoMe framework to quantify expected damages and evaluate the protective role of forests. Our findings indicate that the lowest risk levels and strongest climate adaptation for both avalanches and rockfall are achieved under the combined low-browsing pressure and high-management scenario. These results underscore the importance of proactive forest management in maintaining the protective functions of mountain forests and mitigating future natural hazard risks in Alpine regions.