Abstract ID: 3.12500 | Accepted as Talk | Talk/Oral | TBA | TBA

In order to strengthen long-tern socio-ecological research in (mountain) LTSER platforms, methods and tools are important for exploring the integration of social and natural sciences in studying the sustainability of globally embedded socio-ecological systems. Changes in their biophysical and socio-economic framework will force land users to rethink and adapt their land management strategies in terms of land cover and land-use intensity. To link societal and environmental drivers of land use change, we developed the land-use agent-based model (ABM) SECLAND. The model’s farm agents represent real-world actors who make decisions in pursuit of well-being, intrinsic motivation and global socioeconomic and political drivers for decision-making influencing their preferences for certain land-use strategies. We will present new simulations for the LTSER (Long-term socio-ecological research) region Eisenwurzen in Austria, for which we calibrated the model with quantitative census data, supplemented by qualitative data from interviews and workshops with stakeholders to represent the specific conditions of the study region. Model simulations produce spatially explicit parcel-level land use maps. Previous land-use trajectories proposed strong shifts toward organic and extensive agriculture as well as forest transition as result of (grass-) land abandonment. We refine these forecasts by focusing on farmers’ perception of extreme events as climate change threats and evaluate the effects of early climate change adaptation measures on future land management. The investigation of social-ecological research in an RI such as eLTER can thus make a crucial contribution to the integration of local, actor-centred and participatory research carried out in LTSER regions.