Abstract ID: 28.7480 | Accepted as Talk | Talk/Oral | 2025-02-27 10:00 - 10:15 | Ágnes‐Heller‐Haus/Small Lecture Room

Global glacier projections beyond 2100 reveal much greater impacts than those visible by 2100 due to glaciers’ slow response to climatic changes. The International Cryosphere Climate Initiative’s State of the Cryosphere reports (iccinet.org) identified projections up to 2300 as a crucial time frame, balancing public and policy relevance while highlighting the long-term consequences of climate change. We updated glacier model projections until 2300, building on Marzeion et al. (2012), by running three glacier models with CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate projections and transitioning to temperature-based visualizations (data and code: doi: 10.5281/zenodo.10055416). Limited climate projections between 1.5°C and 3.0°C global warming, coupled with varying post-2100 warming pathways, complicated clustering by warming levels. To address this, we experimented with LOWESS fits to estimate the remaining glacier mass by 2100 and 2300 for specific warming levels, though a more sophisticated transient fitting approach and a larger climate model ensemble extending to 2300 may be needed. Figures from these updates were featured in the ICCI 2023 and 2024 reports and showcased at the COP28 and COP29 Cryosphere Pavilions. The findings highlight the lack of policy-relevant post-2100 projections and make it even more apparent that every tenth of a degree of global warming matters, with a glacier sensitivity intensifying beyond 2100.