Abstract ID: 28.7274 | Accepted as Talk | Talk/Oral | 2025-02-28 16:15, 2025-02-28 16:15:00 - 16:30, 2025-02-28 16:30:00 | Ágnes‐Heller‐Haus/Small Lecture Room

Most glaciers in Austria are expected to disappear in the coming decades, although the timing of ice loss varies across models and datasets. Regional glacier inventories show that approximately 19% of glacier area and 23% of glacier volume were lost between 2006 and 2017 in the Ötztal and Stubai mountain range (Tyrol, Austria). Five very small glaciers disappeared between 2006 and 2017 and are no longer included in the most recent inventory for the region. Using a novel calibration method based on high-resolution regional inventory data, projections by the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) indicate that 2.7% of the 2017 glacier volume in the region will remain by 2100 in a global warming scenario of +1.5°C above pre-industrial temperatures. In a +2°C scenario, this volume is reached around 30 years earlier and deglaciation is practically complete by 2100 (0.4% of 2017 volume remaining). Current warming trajectories (+2.7°C) suggest near-total ice loss before 2075. Over 100 glaciers, roughly one third of the glaciers in the study region, are likely to disappear by 2030 even in the optimistic +1.5°C scenario. We will present key results from our assessment of glacier evolution in the Ötztal and Stubai mountains until 2100 (preprint: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3146). Additionally, we would like to share what we learned from combining the monitoring and modeling approaches of the two first-authors. We intend to touch on questions such as: – What sort of observations would be most helpful for improved glacier evolution modeling at regional scales? – How could the observations community better support modeling efforts in terms of data acquisition, curation, and format? – What are limitations and challenges related to observational data that modelers should be aware of? – Which observed melt-accelerating processes are not resolved in mass balance modeling and how might this be improved?