Abstract ID: 3.8198 | Pending | Talk/Oral | TBA | TBA

Forest fires are influenced by numerous drivers particularly climate change, resulting in substantial ecological degradation, economic instability, loss of livelihood, and loss of life. Increasing fire frequency and intensity in the central Himalayas are exacerbated by increasing temperature, expanding dry spell duration before monsoon, and altered precipitation patterns. In this situation, how climate change-led alteration in fire dynamics affects soil nutrients and the socio-ecology of the region at different latitudes is important to understand. The diverse topography and altitudinal variation trigger different micro-climates in the central Himalayas. Thus, exploring spatial drivers, ecological and social impacts, future risks, and potential mitigation strategies for these accelerated forest fires is crucial. Therefore, this research attempted to uncover the most important factors and future fire risks using Geographically Weighted Binary Logistic Regression, assessed the impact of fire on soil nutrients at varying latitudes, to understand social and economic problems related to fire, and developed a comprehensive fire management strategy which will be economically beneficial also for locals. The fire management strategy combined indigenous knowledge and application of advanced remote sensing-based real-time monitoring. High fire-risk zones, including Rajaji National Park, Jim Corbett National Park, and Nainital, exhibit a fire probability exceeding 90%, primarily driven by elevation, aspect, temperature, duration of dry period, and human proximity with 83.1% accuracy. Soil nutrient analysis reveals significant degradation in burned areas, with organic carbon, nitrogen, and potassium levels reduced by over 50%. This gap is wider in the southern warm region. Agricultural productivity loss, reduction in non-timber forest products, livelihood loss, and outmigration were the major challenges faced by the forest-dependent populous. Moreover, using pine needles for bio-briquettes to reduce fuel loads and enhance early warning systems can mitigate fire risks and ecological consequences by making the local community resilient to climate change. The local Van Panchayet system emerged as the most successful participatory practice to mitigate fire risk.