Spatial distribution pattern and range shift of hawkmoths in the Hindu-Kush Himalaya region under climate change
Abstract
The Hindu Kush-Himalayan (HKH) region, renowned for its complex geography and rich biodiversity, supports local communities through its mountain agricultural economy. However, it faces significant threats from climate change. Despite the urgency, biodiversity baseline surveys remain limited due to uneven development and a lack of international cooperation. Hawkmoths (family Sphingidae), comprising over 1,460 species globally, are ecologically vital as pollinators and environmental indicators due to their mobility, habitat coverage, and sensitivity to environmental changes. This study addresses three objectives. First, it maps hawkmoth diversity and analyses species richness patterns across the HKH through literature reviews, specimen examination, and field investigations. The MaxEnt model, combined with environmental factors, will identify suitable habitats, enabling the creation of a spatial distribution map of Sphingidae species richness. Second, it assesses the impact of climate change on hawkmoth distribution by predicting potential habitats under current and future climate scenarios. Third, it optimises conservation priority areas based on hawkmoth diversity, evaluated at CBD targets of 18%, 30%, and 50%. A comparative analysis with existing conservation areas will assess the plan’s effectiveness in coverage, species protection, and ecological outcomes. The research will provide quantitative baseline data on Sphingidae distribution, clarify shifts in hawkmoth habitats under climate change, and offer evidence-based conservation recommendations. By integrating biodiversity data with climate modelling, this study advances scientific understanding and supports sustainable biodiversity conservation in the ecologically significant HKH region.