Abstract ID: 3.9198 | Accepted as Talk | Talk/Oral | TBA | TBA

Climate change is significantly transforming ecosystems in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH), especially in Uttarakhand, where temperature variations, increasing rainfall variability, retreating glaciers, and changing snowlines affect resource availability. These climatic changes aggravate food and water shortages, crop failures, and livelihood restrictions by intensifying water stress, disturbing farming zones, and increasing the drought frequency. With declining chances, outmigration has become a major coping mechanism with major effects on women left behind. This study investigates climate-induced migration in Uttarakhand, where declining livelihoods have resulted in the emergence of “ghost villages”; abandoned settlements caused by widespread outmigration. The effects of climate change were evaluated using CMIP6 forecasts based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios, which were correlated with migration trends using socioeconomic data. The multimodal ensemble mean of NEX-GDDP models was employed to examine yearly rainfall and temperature trends for three future periods: near-future (2025–2050) and mid-future (2051–2075), relative to the 1985–2015 baseline. Findings indicate that under some SSP scenarios, yearly rainfall is expected to grow by 6% to 20% in addition to increasing frequency of severe rainfall events in every district. Warmer days would become more frequent when temperatures rise more than 1.5°C. Concurrent with declining landholdings, higher crop losses, and climate variability, agriculture is becoming unviable and up to 50% of residents will be forced to migrate from lost livelihoods. Men-dominated migration adds more agricultural and household chores for women. Over next few decades, agricultural output will drop resulting in in worsening food shortages. Communities must adapt to climate change by building stronger farming systems, exploring new livelihoods, and improving roads and health services. Restoring water sources is essential, supported by women and marginalized groups with financial help and teamwork. With ongoing research, local participation, and regular evaluation, these efforts stay inclusive and effective, protecting our future against changing environments for everyone’s overall benefit.