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FS 3.119

Experiences of Climate Change at the Third Pole

Details

  • Full Title

    FS 3.119: The Third Pole: Examining climate change experiences with indigenous communities in the Indian Himalayas
  • Scheduled

    Talks:
    2025-09-17, 16:00 - 17:30 (LT), SOWI – SR 11
  • Convener

  • Co-Conveners

  • Assigned to Synthesis Workshop

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  • Thematic Focus

    Cryo- & Hydrosphere, Socio-Ecology, Sustainable Development
  • Keywords

    Climate impacts, Glacial melt, Cultural sustainability

Description

The Third Pole: Examining climate change experiences with indigenous communities in the Indian Himalayas, implications for Human Rights and the Rights of Nature” is a social science research project focused on the Indian Himalayas, that aims to understand the dire impacts of climate change on both the peoples and the environment of this critical region. Known as the water tower of the world, the Third Pole (TP) is facing rapid environmental change, laying the ground for irreversible socio-ecological changes not only in the region but the world. The TP is warming at .3C per decade, which is much faster than the global average, which is creating dire effects on the cryosphere (snow cover, glaciers, and permafrost). With temperature rises of “between 1.5°C to 2°C (current levels), the HKH glaciers are expected to lose 30% to 50% of their volume by 2100” (ICIMOD, 2023). The Himalayas are the third largest store of freshwater in the world after the two Poles, and the water from this region sustains two billion people and countless species downstream. The changes now that are happening here have significant global consequences. Thus, this research asks the timely questions: How can we understand the socio-ecological impacts of climate change through the eyes of indigenous communities experiencing these changes on the ground? And: How can we understand these impacts through the lenses of Human Rights and Rights of Nature?

Registered Abstracts

ID: 3.10939

Differential Climate Change Impacts on Migrant and Resident Populations of the Indian cold deserts

Aishwarya Negi
Singh, Sanjay; Nautiyal, Raman

Abstract/Description

The indigenous communities of cold deserts of the Third Pole region are experiencing grave and adverse consequences of climate change, livelihoods being the most vulnerable of them, leading to migration of the communities in search of favourable climate. A study was conducted to identify the gap in understanding climate change and related awareness among residents of Lahaul and Spiti, part of the Indian cold deserts, by analyzing the difference in perception between migrants and permanent residents. Residents were categorized into migrants and permanent residents based on their duration of stay in the region, the cut-off point being 10 months. The responses of the Indigenous communities concerning climate change awareness and adaptation were obtained through a structured and pre-tested questionnaire and analysed using chi-square, and Mann-Whitney tests. The responses were also related to climatic trends. Additionally, the factors driving adaptation by permanent residents like choice of house type and use of renewable energy resources were also explored. It was found that permanent residents, relying more on natural resources and traditional subsistence practices, perceived greater threats from changing climatic patterns and their subsequent effects. In contrast, migrants demonstrated varied perceptions. A decline in snowfall coupled with rising temperatures, and erratic rainfall has led to changes in housing and agricultural patterns, respectively, highlighting how varying climate vulnerabilities influence adaptation strategies of the indigenous communities.

ID: 3.11207

Impact of Climate Change on Streamflow Dynamics in Himalayan Region: Lessons from the Bheri River Basin, Nepal

Suresh Marahatta
Aryal, Deepak; Pokharel, Binod; Devkota, Laxmi; Paudel, Him Kiran

Abstract/Description

The Bheri River Basin (BRB) in Nepal, located in the Himalayan region, is currently experiencing significant hydrological shifts due to climate change. This research aims to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on the hydrological patterns of the BRB using future climate projections derived from downscaled CMIP6 GCM models. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model was employed to simulate hydrological processes. The model demonstrated strong performance on both monthly and daily time scales. Projections indicate that the average annual temperature in the basin will increase by 0.8°C and 1.9°C under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively, for the future period (2071–2100) compared to historical values (1985–2014). Additionally, precipitation is expected to increase slightly, by approximately 10% under both scenarios. These findings suggest that the combination of increased rainfall and enhanced snowmelt due to higher temperatures will lead to a rise in the discharge of the Bheri River. Specifically, projected discharge is estimated to increase by 12% under SSP245 and 22% under SSP585. Overall, the results indicate an increase in average annual discharge, with more pronounced changes under the high-emission scenario. However, on a monthly scale, river discharge is expected to decrease by 10% in January, February, and March, while it could increase by up to 60% in June. This shift in runoff patterns poses challenges for water users, particularly for planned storage/peaking hydropower and irrigation projects during the dry season. In conclusion, this study highlights the importance of understanding potential hydrological shifts driven by climate change in the Bheri River Basin.

ID: 3.11227

Nexus of Science and Society in Risk Perception: Lessons from the 2012 Seti River Flash Flood in Nepal

Deepak Aryal
Paudel, Jiban Mani; Pokharel, Binod; Kattel, Parameshwari; Munoz Christine, Jurt Vicuna

Abstract/Description

Western science and local knowledge are often rooted in distinct epistemological and ontological frameworks, leading to divergent ideologies and approaches to understanding phenomena, including risks and risk perceptions. This work explores the potential for collaboration between western or natural science and local knowledge to better comprehend flood risks in mountainous regions, using the 2012 Seti River flash flood in central Nepal as a case study. In this study the scientific knowledge—supported by facts, figures, and models—explains the flood as a consequence of increased water levels triggered by changing precipitation patterns, rapid glacier melt, glacial lake outbursts, landslides, and river blockages. On the other hand, local narratives attribute the flood to moral decay, cosmological imbalances, spiritual indeterminacy, greed, and environmental disruptions. The study also examines the failure of a relocation program for flood-affected households, highlighting the disconnect between external interventions and local realities. Findings underscore that while western science and local perspectives differ fundamentally in their explanations of risk, neither approach alone can fully account for the complexity of flood-induced risks. In this work we are mainly focus on the interaction and collaboration between these knowledge systems that can serve as a critical meeting point for achieving a more contextual and holistic understanding of risks. By integrating diverse epistemologies, this study advocates for interdisciplinary approaches to risk assessment and disaster management.